Abstract. Ergodic properties of the signal-filtering pair are studied for continuous time finite Markov chains, observed in white noise. The obtained law of large numbers is applied to the stability problem of the nonlinear filter with respect to initial conditions. The Furstenberg-Khasminskii formula is derived for the top Lyapunov exponent of the Zakai equation and is used to estimate the stability index of the filter.
IntroductionConsider a pair of continuous time random processes (X, Y ) = (X t , Y t ) t≥0 , where the signal component X is a Markov chain, taking values in a finite alphabet S = {a 1 , ..., a d }, with transition intensities matrix Λ and initial distribution ν. The observation process Y is given bywith an S → R function h, constant σ > 0 and a Brownian motion B = (B t ) t≥0 , independent of X. The filtering problem is to calculate the conditional probabilities π t (i) = P(X t = a i |F Y t ), i = 1, ..., d where F Y t = σ{Y s , s ≤ t}, which are the main building blocks of the optimal MSE and MAP signal estimateŝgiven the trajectory of Y up to time t.The vector π t satisfies the Itô stochastic differential equation (SDE) ([21], see also [17])where h stands for the column vector with entries h i := h(a i ), i = 1, ..., d. Hereafter the following notations are used: diag(x), x ∈ R d stands for a scalar matrix with entries x i and x * is transposed of x. The space of probability measures on S is identified with the simplex