Machine Learning a Probabilistic Structural Equation Model to Explain the Impact of Climate Risk Perceptions on Policy Support

Abstract

While a flurry of studies and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have independently investigated the impacts of switching mitigation policies in response to different climate scenarios, little is understood about the feedback effect of how human risk perceptions of climate change could contribute to switching climate mitigation policies. This study presents a novel machine learning approach, utilizing a probabilistic structural equation model (PSEM), for understanding complex interactions among climate risk perceptions, beliefs about climate science, political ideology, demographic factors, and their combined effects on support for mitigation policies. We use machine learning-based PSEM to identify the latent variables and quantify their complex interaction effects on support for climate policy. As opposed to a priori clustering of manifest variables into latent variables that is implemented in traditional SEMs, the novel PSEM presented in this study uses unsupervised algorithms to identify data-driven clustering of manifest variables into latent variables. Further, information theoretic metrics are used to estimate both the structural relationships among latent variables and the optimal number of classes within each latent variable. The PSEM yields an R2 of 92.2% derived from the “Climate Change in the American Mind” dataset (2008–2018 [N = 22,416]), which is a substantial improvement over a traditional regression analysis-based study applied to the CCAM dataset that identified five manifest variables to account for 51% of the variance in policy support. The PSEM uncovers a previously unidentified class of “lukewarm supporters” (~59% of the US population), different from strong supporters (27%) and opposers (13%). These lukewarm supporters represent a wide swath of the US population, but their support may be capricious and sensitive to the details of the policy and how it is implemented. Individual survey items clustered into latent variables reveal that the public does not respond to “climate risk perceptions” as a single construct in their minds. Instead, PSEM path analysis supports dual processing theory: analytical and affective (emotional) risk perceptions are identified as separate, unique factors, which, along with climate beliefs, political ideology, and race, explain much of the variability in the American public’s support for climate policy. The machine learning approach demonstrates that complex interaction effects of belief states combined with analytical and affective risk perceptions; as well as political ideology, party, and race, will need to be considered for informing the design of feedback loops in IAMs that endogenously feedback the impacts of global climate change on the evolution of climate mitigation policies.