Machine learning approaches to debris flow susceptibility analyses in the Yunnan section of the Nujiang River Basin

Abstract

Background The Yunnan section of the Nujiang River (YNR) Basin in the alpine-valley area is one of the most critical areas of debris flow in China. Methods We analyzed the applicability of three machine learning algorithms to model of susceptibility to debris flow—Random Forest (RF), the linear kernel support vector machine (Linear SVM), and the radial basis function support vector machine (RBFSVM)—and compared 20 factors to determine the dominant controlling in debris flow occurrence in the region. Results We found that (1) RF outperformed RBFSVM and Linear SVM in terms of accuracy, (2) topographic conditions were prerequisites, and geology, precipitation, vegetation, and anthropogenic influence were critical to forming debris flows. Also, the relative elevation difference was the most prominent evaluation factor of debris flow susceptibility, and (3) susceptibility maps based on RF’s debris flow susceptibility (DFS) showed that zones with very high susceptibility were distributed along the mainstream of the Nujiang River. These findings provide methodological guidance and reference for improvement of DFS assessment. It enriches the content of DFS studies in the alpine-valley areas.