2021
DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2020.1865847
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Machine learning methods for short-term probability of default: A comparison of classification, regression and ranking methods

Abstract: Probability of default estimation via machine learning on historical data is widely studied in credit risk modeling. In this work, we investigated the use of machine learning for a finergrained risk estimation task, namely spot factoring. Here, the goal is to estimate the likelihood that an invoice will be paid in an acceptable timeframe. In this case, risk is more related to the overdueness of an invoice. Based on this observation, we investigate three possible machine learning tasks for estimating this risk:… Show more

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Cited by 17 publications
(5 citation statements)
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“…Considering the overdue days, the regression of overdue days, making the machine learning rank the events based on the risk-related ranking is what their model does. They finally show that a regression model can result in higher profits and better spread the risk [43].…”
Section: Credit Scoring and Risk Managementmentioning
confidence: 95%
“…Considering the overdue days, the regression of overdue days, making the machine learning rank the events based on the risk-related ranking is what their model does. They finally show that a regression model can result in higher profits and better spread the risk [43].…”
Section: Credit Scoring and Risk Managementmentioning
confidence: 95%
“…OLS selects the parameters as a linear function of a set of explanatory variables by the principle of least squares, i.e., minimising the sum of squares of the residuals between the dependent variable (the value of the predicted variable) and the predictor variables observed in a given data set. This is one of the most basic forms of LGD regression analysis [45,46].…”
Section: Supervised MLmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…To improve the accuracy and speed of identifying tweets based on their polarities, the authors in [14] implemented an ensemble classifier which made use of Twitter sentiment techniques. A ranking method [15] and Skip-gram meter, Word2Vec [16], were combined with a resource-based method using linguistic knowledge in their design. Text clustering techniques can be used to establish multi-level ontological linkages and identify semantic linkages between topic ideas in the framework of a knowledge graph [17].…”
Section: Related Workmentioning
confidence: 99%