2020
DOI: 10.1038/s41746-020-0256-0
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Machine learning prediction of incidence of Alzheimer’s disease using large-scale administrative health data

Abstract: Nationwide population-based cohort provides a new opportunity to build an automated risk prediction model based on individuals' history of health and healthcare beyond existing risk prediction models. We tested the possibility of machine learning models to predict future incidence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) using large-scale administrative health data. From the Korean National Health Insurance Service database between 2002 and 2010, we obtained de-identified health data in elders above 65 years (N = 40,736) c… Show more

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Cited by 106 publications
(83 citation statements)
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“…In particular, by applying multiple “off‐the‐shelf” ML algorithms on EHR data, including patient demographics, comorbidities, and medication history, we assessed the effectiveness of variables extracted from longitudinal EHRs. Recent work 17 also used ML to predict AD with large‐scale administrative claims data. While our study only used EHR data, we observed comparable performance at the 0‐year prediction task, and significantly improved performance at 1‐year, 2‐year, and 3‐year prediction tasks.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In particular, by applying multiple “off‐the‐shelf” ML algorithms on EHR data, including patient demographics, comorbidities, and medication history, we assessed the effectiveness of variables extracted from longitudinal EHRs. Recent work 17 also used ML to predict AD with large‐scale administrative claims data. While our study only used EHR data, we observed comparable performance at the 0‐year prediction task, and significantly improved performance at 1‐year, 2‐year, and 3‐year prediction tasks.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Clinical patient data has been widely used to predict outcomes such as length of stay and costs [ 36 , 54 , 55 , 56 ]. Recommendations and guidelines were made based on accurate predictions of such measures [ 57 , 58 , 59 ].…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The methods tested included random forest, SVM and logistic regression. The reported AUCs of the used models for predicting Alzheimer's disease were around 0.7 [238].…”
Section: Covid-19mentioning
confidence: 99%