Macro-determinants of current account balance performance in selected African countries

Abstract

Most African countries are open to international trade as shown by their signatories to various trade agreements such as the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU, and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). However, these countries face persistent current account deficits and institutional underdevelopment. The existing literature investigates the underlying factors at country-specific levels while ignoring the role of institutions. Meanwhile, African countries are also rapidly transitioning towards economic integration with the establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AFCFTA) to deepen intra-Africa trade. Therefore, for unionized policy proposition, this study controls for the effects of institutions and investigates the macro-determinants of the current account balance (CAB) performance using panel data from 2002 to 2020 for 20 African countries. To account for cross-country correlation and country-level heteroscedasticity, the study employed panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) and feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) techniques for the governance indicators-related step-wise estimations. The results show that after controlling for the effects of institutions, income, trade openness, the price level, the interplay between manufacturing and financial sector development, and the money supply are the significant macro-determinants of the CAB performance in Africa. Further, the marginal info-graphics show that the predictive effects of value addition and financial development on the CAB increase positively with good governance and that improved governance could reverse any negative effects of trade openness on the CAB performance. Based on the findings, the study recommends inter alia that African countries pursue value-addition-oriented trade, zero Central Bank budgetary financing, and institutional quality improvement to enhance the performance of their CABs.