Macroeconomic Analysis of a Country’s Development: Security Aspect

Abstract

The global economy in the current period of evolutionary development is constantly changing and transforming due to the need to adapt it to the changing conditions of civilisational development. Every country in the world experiences global changes that put on the agenda the issues of ensuring an appropriate level of security in the financial, economic and food sectors. An important issue is the timely monitoring of economic security and forecasting of further social and economic development of the country.The panel data for our study consisted of 19 indicators of measuring the macroeconomic security of Ukraine, which we defined as stimulants, nominators and destimulants. The informational basis of forecasting is the reported data of the macroeconomic development of the country. With the usage of methods of statistical modelling, expert judgement, least squares, Fisher's criterion, correlation and regression analysis, the predicted values of macroeconomic security indicators and the level of shadowing of the economy were calculated. For an experimental purpose, it is proposed to compare the results of integral assessments and the predicted values of macroeconomic security of the country in two methods, namely: expert assessment and modified principal component.The results of estimating the country's macroeconomic development obtained by the modified principal component method are significantly higher than those obtained from expert judgement. In 2013-2017, the difference between these estimates decreases, but the modified principal component estimate method remains higher. In 2018-2020, the estimate obtained by the expert valuation method becomes higher. The forecast for 2023-2024 assumes a stabilisation of the integral estimate. The modified principal component method predicts a certain increase compared to 2020, while the expert valuation method predicts a slight decrease. The results of modelling the further macroeconomic development of the country indicate the need for government managers to focus on the processes of attracting investment and stabilising the labour market, which would significantly increase the country's security.The proposed logic of macroeconomic analysis of a country's functioning can be used in planning or strategising public policy for social and economic development. Taking into account the changes obtained in the process of such analysis will make it possible to increase the level of security of the country. Determination of forecast values of the level of shadowing of the economy will allow stakeholders to make adaptive managerial decisions in the direction of bringing the economy out of the shadow and stimulating security aspects of the country's development.