Macroeconomic impact of the German energy transition and its distribution by sectors and regions

Sievers, Luisa; Breitschopf, Barbara; Pfaff, Matthias; Schaffer, Axel

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.02.017

Cited by 33 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Even in the case of a complete crowding out of other investment by the additional climate protection investment, both target paths still result in a slightly higher GDP compared to the reference development (0.3% and 0.5%, respectively). Another study on the impacts of the energy transition, which also analyses the sectoral and regional distribution of these effects [25], finds a GDP increase of 1.6% and additional employment of 1.1% in 2030. The sectoral effects of ambitious climate mitigation in Germany are mostly positive, except for the conventional energy and mining sector.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the energy transition in Germany and their distribution across sectors and regions can be found in [25]. Our method for determining the effects is similar but builds on a different type of model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our method for determining the effects is similar but builds on a different type of model. While a system dynamics model is used in [25], we use a macroeconometric model. A key innovation is that the target scenarios capture in detail the current status of policy instruments that are planned and, in some cases, already implemented.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Socioeconomic Effects of Ambitious Climate Mitigation Policies in Germany

2021

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The EU Commission has introduced the instrument of National Energy and Climate Plans (NECP) to better achieve energy and climate policy targets. In Germany, a comprehensive study was commissioned for this purpose. Its methods and main results are presented here. It starts with a set of energy system models that maps the necessary changes in the energy system, together with corresponding measures bottom-up. The results then enter the PANTA RHEI macroeconometric top-down model as scenario inputs to determine the socioeconomic effects. According to the bottom-up models, achieving the target of 55% GHG reduction by 2030 will not be easy. The macroeconomic effects are mostly positive. Driven by additional investment, GDP and the number of jobs will be higher than in the baseline. The construction and service sectors can benefit from energy and climate policy measures. The share of final consumer expenditures on energy in GDP declines by 2030 compared to today. However, the direction and magnitude of the effects are not undisputed in the literature. The results show that ambitious climate policies are possible in Germany, which can also improve the achievement of economic and social goals.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Socioeconomic Effects of Ambitious Climate Mitigation Policies in Germany

2021

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“…The solution of global environmental problems requires medium and long-term sustainable development and transformation strategies. They are often driven by politics and are aimed at production and consumption of resources [19]. In that regard, such transformations are related not only to the environment, but also to the economy, and public administration must adapt to such an object as an environmental and economic system.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Automation of Environmental and Economic Systems Research Using Data Mining

Kharitonova¹,

Tikhonova²,

Kagirova³

et al. 2020

Proceedings of the International Conference on Policies and Economics Measures for Agricultural Development (AgroDevEco 2020)

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The subject of the study is environmental and economic systems. The authors specified the concept of environmental and economic systems as the natural environment under the influence of human economic and social activities, including mutual influence, as well as the consequences resulting from it. The authors set a goal to develop a methodology for the study of environmental and economic systems that would adequately assess their current state and forecast changes. The approach to the study of such systems consists in the staged application of cluster analysis and data mining classification methods (random forest and support vectors method) and followed assessment of the quality of the model and choosing the best method. In presented research, the analytical procedures are automated in the R-Studio package. The analysis of the same indicators by two different methods confirmed the direct relationship between the costs and investments in environmental protection and the results of environmental protection: with the growth of investments in environmental protection, indicators of recycled water use, discharge of polluted wastewater, air emissions of pollutants were reduced.

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“…For Germany, single scenario analyses comparing more ambitious scenarios to less ambitious businessas-usual (BAU) cases or a counterfactual scenario often show positive effects for gross domestic product (GDP) and employment (Sievers et al 2019, Lutz et al 2021a. At the EU level, transformation scenarios are also assessed in terms of their socioeconomic consequences by soft linking energy system models with macroeconomic models (Fragkos et al 2017, Vrontisi et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Macroeconomic Developments in Ten Scenarios of Energy System Transformation in Germany – National and Regional Results

Ulrich

Naegler

Becker

et al. 2021

Preprint

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BackgroundMany different strategies have already been proposed for the transformation of the energy system in Germany. To evaluate their sustainability, it is necessary to analyze their macroeconomic and distributional effects. An approach to do this in an integrated and consistent framework is presented here. MethodsThe comparison of ten energy transition scenarios with emission reduction targets by 2050 of 80% or 95%, respectively, allows the evaluation across a broad range of different strategies with respect to the future technology and energy carrier mix. For this purpose, an energy system model and a macroeconometric model are combined, thus re-modeling the unified scenarios. An important extension of the model was concerned with the integration of synthetic fuels into the energy-economy model. One focus besides the overall macroeconomic assessment is the regional analysis. For this purpose, own assumptions on the regional distribution of the expansion of renewable energies were developed. ResultsThe effects on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment are similar in average from 2030 to 2050 between the scenarios, with most of the more ambitious scenarios showing slightly higher results for the socioeconomic variables. Sectorally, employment in the construction sector shows the largest effects in most scenarios, while in the energy sector employment is lower in scenarios with high energy imports. At the regional level, the differences between scenarios are larger than at national level. There is no clear or stable regional pattern of relative loss and profit from very ambitious transformation, as not only RE expansion varies and hydrogen strategies enter the scene approaching 2050.ConclusionsFrom the relatively small differences between the scenarios it can be concluded that, from a macroeconomic perspective, it is not decisive for the overall economy which (supply side) strategy is chosen for the transformation of the energy system. More effort needs to be put into improving assumptions and modeling approaches related to strategies for achieving the final 20% CO2 reduction, for example the increasing use of hydrogen.

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Macroeconomic impact of the German energy transition and its distribution by sectors and regions

Cited by 33 publications

References 13 publications

Socioeconomic Effects of Ambitious Climate Mitigation Policies in Germany

Socioeconomic Effects of Ambitious Climate Mitigation Policies in Germany

Automation of Environmental and Economic Systems Research Using Data Mining

Comparison of Macroeconomic Developments in Ten Scenarios of Energy System Transformation in Germany – National and Regional Results

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