Macroeconomic modeling for assessing sustainability of bioethanol production in Thailand

Kaenchan, Piyanon; Puttanapong, Nattapong; Bowonthumrongchai, Thongchart; Limskul, Kitti; Gheewala, Shabbir H.

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.026

Cited by 15 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…This process results in increasing the GDP gradually and implies that enhancing the TFP of energy crops could compensate for the negative effects of terminating biofuel subsidies. The results are in line with [37], which stated that improving bioethanol cultivation efficiency enhances economic growth because efficiency would reduce cost per unit and produce more products.…”

supporting

confidence: 86%

“…The productivity was averaged from the total factor of productivity reported by the OIE [35]. The depreciation rate and the elasticity of investment demand were applied from the previous studies [36,37].…”

Section: Dynamics Assumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The numeraire was an exchange rate. The scale, share, and exponential parameters were calibrated, following the methods introduced in previous studies [37]. The general algebraic modeling system (GAMS) was used to solve equations for equilibrium using a constrained nonlinear system (CNS).…”

Section: Closure and Solutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic Impacts of Thailand’s Biofuel Subsidy Reallocation Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model

2021

Self Cite

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For two decades, the Thai government has been promoting ethanol and biodiesel consumption through tax measures and price subsidies. Although this policy has substantially increased the consumption and production of biofuels, there is concern regarding its future fiscal burden. Due to fiscal constraints, the Thai government has planned to completely terminate the biofuel subsidy by 2022. This study aims at examining the economy-wide impacts of removing the biofuel subsidy and also conducting simulations of alternative scenarios, i.e., improving the yield of energy crops and reallocating the burden to expand capital investment in energy crop plantations. A recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was used as the main quantitative method to conduct four simulation scenarios. This model was validated by comparing the simulation results with the actual 2015–2019 data and showed low values of root mean square error (RMSE). The simulation results indicate that solely terminating the price subsidy would lead to economy-wide contraction. Meanwhile, eliminating the price subsidy along with influencing crop yield improvement and expanding capital investment in energy crop plantations would lead to the lowest negative impacts. Therefore, the termination of the price subsidy should be simultaneously implemented with supply-side expansions.

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supporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Dynamics Assumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic Impacts of Thailand’s Biofuel Subsidy Reallocation Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model

2021

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“…Kaenchan et al [48] analyzed the socioeconomic and environmental effects of cassava and molasses-based ethanol production in Brazil by using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium modeling. Regarding socioeconomic, higher ethanol production and feedstock production efficiency were the most influential elements.…”

Section: Integrated and Combined Ethanol Biorefineriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Aspects and Sustainability of Ethanol Production—A Systematic Literature Review

Mizik

2021

Energies

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Meeting the increasing global energy demand in a sustainable way is a major challenge for humanity. One of the solutions in the transportation sector is ethanol, which is currently the only economically viable direct fuel substitute. In addition to the first-generation technology, which provides the vast majority of production, better results can be continuously realized by using advanced technologies. This study aims to investigate the economic aspects and sustainability issues of ethanol production with a systematic literature review. During the selection process, 64 studies from a total of 16,141 identified articles were analyzed in-depth. There is a consensus that first-generation production methods cannot result in a long-term solution. However, advanced technologies are currently immature, and ethanol production is more expensive with them. The use of wastes/residues and coproducts can improve both the economic outlook and sustainability of the advanced technologies. Overall, the newer generations of technological advancements are constantly improving the environmental performance, whereas the economic performance is deteriorating. Considering low oil prices (0.36 USD/L), none of the ethanol production methods can be competitive on a purely cost basis. This increases the importance of coproducts (further processing and more valuable coproducts). Regarding sustainability, a complex analysis is essential, which must cover at least the environmental, social, and economic aspects. At the methodology level, a complex life cycle analysis seems to be the best tool, as it can take into account these relevant aspects (environmental, economic, and social).

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“…Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models applied to five different simulation scenarios with application of indicators. (Kaenchan, Puttanapong, Bowonthumrongchai, Limskul, & Gheewala, 2019) 2019…”

Section: Sugar Canementioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of methodologies used to assess bioethanol sustainability

Melo

Marques

Rocha

2020

RSD

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Considering the importance of the search for sustainability and the growing emphasis given to biofuels, promoted as a promising alternative energy, this study highlights the relevance of research that evaluates sustainability in the bioenergy sector, specifically bioethanol. The present work aims to analyze methodologies aimed at assessing the sustainability of bioethanol using a literature review and, based on this analysis, indicate the most suitable methodology. The most popular methodologies used to assess the sustainability of bioethanol were identified from the bibliographic survey and screened according to pre-established criteria of exclusion, based on keywords, and inclusion, regarding the pillars and biofuel addressed. First, it was found that the studies were conducted in different regional contexts and used different methodologies, which could provide both quantitative and qualitative results. After screening and selection, the evaluation methodologies adopted by each author were analyzed. This analysis made it possible to recognize the factors influencing the choice of methodology, where the suitability of a methodology to the particularities of each case was of great importance. Finally, considering the pre-defined criteria for assessing the sustainability of bioethanol, this paper recommends the GBEP (Global Bioenergy Partnership) methodology as the most appropriate, especially since it was created specifically for the bioenergetic sector and has an accessible application protocol. Lastly, it was also noted that few publications evaluate the sustainability of bioethanol considering its entire three dimensions (social, environmental, and economic), emphasizing the importance of developing more studies with this approach.

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Macroeconomic modeling for assessing sustainability of bioethanol production in Thailand

Cited by 15 publications

References 12 publications

Economic Impacts of Thailand’s Biofuel Subsidy Reallocation Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model

Economic Impacts of Thailand’s Biofuel Subsidy Reallocation Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model

Economic Aspects and Sustainability of Ethanol Production—A Systematic Literature Review

Analysis of methodologies used to assess bioethanol sustainability

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