Macroeconomic outlook of sustainable energy and biorenewables innovations (MEV II)

Abstract

This study was carried out by LEI Wageningen UR and Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University and was commissioned and financed by the topsector platform for knowledge development and innovation of the crosscutting theme bio-based economy (TKI-BBE) and the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs (Min EZ). The study is performed within the BE-Basic R&D programme and project partners Essent, DSM and Corbion provided in-kind contributions to the economic and technical aspects of the work. LEI Wageningen URWageningen, March 2016 REPORT LEI 2016 Van Meijl, H., I. Tsiropoulos, H. Bartelings, M. van den Broek, R. Hoefnagels, M. Van Leeuwen, E. Smeets, A. Tabeau and A. Faaij, 2016. Macroeconomic outlook of sustainable energy and biorenewables innovations (MEV II De Nederlandse overheid verwacht dat een grootschalige toepassing van biomassa nodig is om aan de emissiedoelstellingen te voldoen, maar de macro-economische effecten hiervan op de Nederlandse economie zijn onbekend. Deze studie onderzoekt de effecten van een bio-economie op zowel systeemals macro-economisch niveau en toont aan dat de bio-economie positief kan bijdragen aan de Nederlandse economie, het behalen van broeikasgasreductiedoelstellingen en aan het reduceren van de kosten van het terugdringen van broeikasgasemissies. Om deze effecten te realiseren zijn grootschalige technologische veranderingen en wereldwijde markten belangrijk, maar lage prijzen van fossiele energie leiden tot minder macro-economische voordelen. Om de positieve macro-economische effecten en CO 2 -reductie te realiseren is een stimuleringsbeleid noodzakelijk.To meet the emission targets, the Dutch government expects that a large-scale deployment of biomass is needed but the macroeconomic impacts on the Dutch economy are unknown. This study analyses the impacts of the bio-based economy at both system and macroeconomic levels and shows that large-scale deployment of biomass up to 2030 positively contributes to the Dutch economy, contributes to meeting the emission reduction targets and to reducing its macroeconomic costs. High technological change and global markets are important to achieve these impacts, but low fossil energy prices reduce the macroeconomic benefits. To achieve the positive macroeconomic impacts and emission reduction, a stimulus by policies is necessary.Key words: Bioeconomy, macro-economic impacts, technological change, international markets, bottom-up analyses, modelling, renewable energy policies, bio-refineries, Netherlands. The user may reproduce, distribute and share this work and make derivative works from it. Material by third parties which is used in the work and which are subject to intellectual property rights may not be used without prior permission from the relevant third party. The user must attribute the work by stating the name indicated by the author or licensor but may not do this in such a way as to create the impression that the author/licensor endorses the use of the work or the work of the user. The user may not use the work for commercial purpo...

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