Many palaeoclimate estimates are based on the climatic ranges of the nearest
living relatives (NLRs) of fossils. If the climatic ranges of the true NLRs of
the taxa in a fossil assemblage do not overlap, then the past climatic ranges
of some of the fossil taxa are different from the ranges of their NLRs.
Discrepancies between the climatic ranges of the inferred NLRs of co-occurring
fossils are common, particularly in assemblages older than the Middle
Pleistocene. Evidence from Early Pleistocene Tasmania indicates that many
anomalies are caused by extinct species, or at least extinct genotypes. It is
likely that pre-Quaternary fossil deposits will contain more extinct taxa.
Most of the extinct Early Pleistocene taxa have warm climate NLRs, but they
appear to have occurred in climates no warmer than modern climates in western
Tasmania. Sometimes NLR approaches in climate reconstruction appear to be
biased by extinctions of ecotypes and species, especially ones caused by the
Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles. Extinctions also mean that it
is difficult to identify palaeoclimates that are different from any modern
climate.