Madagascar’s burned area from Sentinel-2 imagery (2016–2022): Four times higher than from lower resolution sensors

Abstract

Madagascar is one of the most burned regions in the world, to the point that it has been called the ‘Isle of fire’ or the ‘Burning Island’. An accurate characterization of the burned area (BA) is crucial for understanding the true situation and impacts of fires on this island, where there is an active scientific debate on how fire affects multiple environmental and socioeconomic aspects, and how fire regimes should be in a complex context with differing interests. Despite this, recent advances have revealed that BA in Madagascar is poorly characterised by the currently available global BA products. In this work, we present, validate, and explore a BA database at 20 m spatial resolution for Madagascar covering the period 2016-2022. The database was built based on 75,010 Sentinel-2 images using a two-phase BA detection algorithm. The validation with independent long-term reference units showed Dice coefficients ≥79%, omission errors ≤24%, commission errors ≤18%, and a relative bias ≥-8%. An intercomparison with other available global BA products (GABAM, FireCCI51, C3SBA11, or MCD64) demonstrated that our product (i) exhibits temporal consistency, (ii) represents a significant accuracy improvement, as it reduces BA underestimations by about eightfold, (iii) yields BA estimates four times higher, and (iv) shows enhanced capability in detecting fires of all sizes. The observed BA spatial patterns were heterogeneous across the island, with 32% of the grasslands burning annually, in contrast to other land cover types such as the dense tropical forest where less than 2% burned every year. We conclude that the BA characterization in Madagascar must be addressed using imagery at spatial resolution higher than MODIS or Sentinel-3 (≥250 m), and temporal resolution higher than Landsat (16 days) to deal with cloudiness, the rapid attenuation of burn scars signals, and small fire patches.