Magma intrusion and effusion at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia, from 2013 to 2016, as revealed by continuous GPS observation

Hotta, Kenji; Iguchi, Masato; Ohkura, Takahiro; Hendrasto, Muhamad; Gunawan, Hendra; Rosadi, Umar; Kriswati, Estu

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.12.015

Cited by 24 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…By using the cumulative volume change of the deformation source data compared with the best fit exponential function, Hotta et al (2017) (Figure 8a) concluded that magma effusion would terminate in the early 2020s, assuming no new intrusion or deformation rate changes. This research has resulted in a significantly lower rate of lava discharge from 2014 to 2018.…”

Section: Predicting the Length Of Eruption Periodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lava Discharge Rate of Sinabung Volcano Obtained from Modis Hot Spot Data

Kriswati

Solikhin

2020

Indonesian J. Geosci.

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DOI:10.17014/ijog.7.3.241-252To find out the long term data of Sinabung magma discharge rate and how long a series of eruption will be ended, time series of the volume of magma discharge is required. The dominant eruption product is pyroclastic flow that begins with the growth of the lava dome, so it is important to determine the volume of the lava dome over time. The method of determining the volume of magma issued is carried out by using hotspot data to resolve the problem of prevented visual observations and ground measurements. The heat and volume flux data expressed within a long period for a better view of variations in the Sinabung volcanic activity are based on thermal satellite data. Related lava dome volume and seismic data are also displayed to be compared with the heat and volume flux data. The numbers of thermally anomalous pixels and sum of radiance for all detected pixels at Sinabung during an overpass in the period of 2014 to 2018 have a downward trend. The discharge rates in the period of January 2014 to April 2015, Mei 2015 to March 2016, April 2016 to March 2017, and June 2017 to February 2018 are 0.86 m3/sec, 0.59 m3/sec, 0.36 m3/sec, and 0.25 m3/sec, respectively. Assuming no new intrusion or deformation rate changes, the lava discharge will be in the lowest rate in the early 2020s.

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Section: Predicting the Length Of Eruption Periodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lava Discharge Rate of Sinabung Volcano Obtained from Modis Hot Spot Data

Kriswati

Solikhin

2020

Indonesian J. Geosci.

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“…During period 3 (December 22, 2013-April 20, 2014), the total deflation was found to be 20.51 × 10 6 m 3 (Hotta et al 2017). From this and Eq.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 64%

“…We corrected the topographical effect by adding the altitudes of the stations to the source depth (Williams and Wadge 1998). We divided entire period 3 into two sessions, and the time from the April 11, 2014-January 16, 201612.2 (+ 3.6/− 2.1) km bsl depth) (Hotta et al 2017) beginning of period 4 until December 2016 into 20 sessions, respectively. We selected the time window for these sessions such that the most data were available for each, because GPS data were sometimes lost due to transmission problems or power outages as seen in Fig.…”

Section: Temporal Volume Change Of Deflation Periodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2c and to yield session intervals that were roughly the same (approximately 50 days on average). The observed displacements of each time window were calculated as the residual of the average position of the last and first 10 days of the time window at each station, and their (Hotta et al 2017) errors (1σ) were calculated as the square root of the sum of the variance of the first and last 10 days of the time window at each station. We excluded the data from station LKWR obtained during the periods from March to May and August to November 2015 because of a local effect around the station (Fig.…”

Section: Temporal Volume Change Of Deflation Periodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1b). We also estimated temporal volume change until May 2016 with the location fixed at the position of the deformation source obtained for each period and found that the rate of volume decrease tended to decay gradually (Hotta et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Method for estimating the end of the deflation initiated in 2014 at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia, under the assumption that the magma behaves as a Bingham fluid

Hotta

Iguchi

Ohkura

et al. 2018

Earth Planets Space

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We herein estimated the end of the ongoing deflation at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia, which began in 2014 under the assumption that the magma is incompressible and behaves as a Bingham fluid. At first, we estimated the temporal volume change of the deformation sources for deflation periods from the end of 2013 until December 2016. The deflation rate is decreasing gradually, and the deflation is expected to cease in the future. Next, we obtained the absolute pressure in the reservoir as a function of time by modeling the magma as an incompressible fluid inside a spherical reservoir with a cylindrical vent and applying the estimated volume change function to the model. We then estimated the yield stress of the Sinabung magma to be 0.1-3 MPa from a previously derived linear relationship between the silica content and yield stress of lava and the measured silica content of Sinabung ashfall from 2010 to 2014, which was reported to be 58-60%. The absolute pressure in the reservoir is expected to fall below the yield stress between August and September 2018, which means that the magma would stop migrating from the reservoir toward the summit under the assumption that it behaves as a Bingham fluid. As a result, the deflation of Sinabung is estimated to end between August and September 2018. In comparison with the 1991-1995 deflation at Unzendake, the total deflation volume of Sinabung is comparable, whereas the duration of the deflation of Sinabung is approximately 1 year longer.

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