Maize yields over Europe may increase in spite of climate change, with an appropriate use of the genetic variability of flowering time

Abstract

SignificanceThe consequences of climate change on European maize yields may become positive if farmers in 2050 use the decision rules they currently follow for adapting plant cycle duration and sowing dates to the diversity of environmental conditions. Experiments and simulations show that the current genetic variability of flowering time allows identifying a cycle duration that maximizes yield at every maize field in Europe. The assumption that farmers use this optimal cycle length in each site was supported by comparison with historical data. Simulated European production for 2050 was stable under the hypotheses of unchanged practices but was increased if farmers continued adopting the decision rules they currently use for adjusting sowing date and crop cycle duration to local environment.

Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation

“…As such, selecting cultivars that maintain the original growing period under warming is a viable adaptation measure in most regions, as it reduces or fully compensates negative effects of warming on crop yields. This confirms recent findings in that historical warming already leads to the use of longer maturing cultivars, which in turn contributed to the increasing yield trend in the United States and Europe (Butler et al, ; Parent et al, ). The response, however, is variable across regions, crops, and GGCMs and thus subject to uncertainties.…”

“…Different agronomic management options have been proposed as adaptation strategies against temperature‐induced yield losses. Most commonly, these include a shift of sowing dates, choice of cultivars with adjusted phenology, and irrigation (Challinor et al, ; Olesen et al, ; Parent et al, ; Ruiz‐Ramos et al, ; Semenov et al, ; Tack et al, ). Sowing dates can be advanced or delayed to match the most favorable thermal conditions and to exploit a longer growing season (Olesen et al, ; Sacks et al, ; Waha et al, ).…”

“…Sowing dates can be advanced or delayed to match the most favorable thermal conditions and to exploit a longer growing season (Olesen et al, ; Sacks et al, ; Waha et al, ). Cultivars with higher thermal‐unit requirements (temperature accumulation above a certain base temperature to reach physiological maturity), different vernalization requirements (exposure to cold temperatures to induce flowering), or altered photoperiod sensitivity (development response to day length) can be used to counteract the shortening of the growing period due to temperature increase (Parent et al, ; Sacks & Kucharik, ). In turn, shorter maturing cultivars can help avoid terminal heat and water stress (Bodner et al, ; Mondal et al, ).…”

“…Although some studies assessed these adaptation strategies at local to regional scales (Burke & Emerick, ; Parent et al, ; Ruiz‐Ramos et al, ; Semenov et al, ), their aggregated effects at the global scale remain an open question. Global projections of climate change impacts usually do not consider the adaptation potentials of agricultural system in response to climate change and might therefore overestimate impacts on crop yields and production.…”

Assessment of Genotypes and Management Strategies to Improve Resilience of Winter Wheat Production

“…Specifically, Parent et al (2018) used experiments and a process-based model to analysis the results of climate change on European maize yields under the farmers who used the best current genetic variability. The results showed that if the crop cycle was adapted, the total maize yield increased by 4.5% and 7.0% for RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, under a moderate increase in transpiration efficiency (TE) [19]. Among many management practices, optimizing the sowing dates of crop was considered to be another efficient way to avoid heat/drought stress on phenology development or a reduction in crop yield.…”