Abstract. Oceanic influences on shelf seas are mediated by flow along and across continental slopes, with consequences for regional hydrography and
ecosystems. Here we present evidence for the variable North Atlantic influence on European shelf seas over the last 4 decades using ocean
analysis and reanalysis products, as well as an eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast. To first order, flows oriented along isobaths at the continental slope
are related to the poleward increase in density in the adjacent deep ocean that supports a geostrophic inflow towards the slope. In the North
Atlantic, this density gradient and associated inflow have undergone substantial, sometimes abrupt, changes in recent decades. Inflow in the range
10–15 Sv is identified with eastward transport in temperature classes at 30∘ W in the latitude range
45–60∘ N. Associated with major subpolar warming around 1997, a cool and fresh branch of the Atlantic inflow was substantially reduced,
while a warm and more saline inflow branch strengthened, with respective changes of the order of 5 Sv. Total inflow fell from
∼ 15 Sv pre-1997 to ∼ 10 Sv post-1997. In the model hindcast, particle tracking is used to trace the origins of poleward
flows along the continental slope to the west of Ireland and Scotland before and after 1997. Backtracking particles up to 4 years, a range of
subtropical and subpolar pathways is identified from a statistical perspective. In broad terms, cold, fresh waters of subpolar provenance were
replaced by warm, saline waters of subtropical provenance. These changes have major implications for the downstream shelf regions that are strongly
influenced by Atlantic inflow, in particular the northern North Sea, where “subtropicalization” of ecosystems has already been observed since the
late 1990s.
