Major Trends and Risks of Demographic Indicators, Exemplified by Novokuznetsk

Abstract

Significance. Results of the analysis of the causes of death by region help to specify focus of the necessary measures, in particular, social programs. In Russia, since 2017, the second stage of depopulation has begun, associated with a reduction in fertility. Due to the "Russian Cross" of the 1990s, there was a sharp decrease in the number of women of active reproductive age, especially 25-29 years. A significant natural decline of the population, in particular, in Novokuznetsk, is of great concern, including due to the increase in mortality in recent years and the outflow of population. Purpose. To conduct a comparative and dynamic analysis of the Novokuznetsk demographic indicators with the general situation in Russia to identify risk areas and take effective measures to improve the situation. Material and methods. The analysis uses WHO data, collections of Rosstat and the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, data from the Kemerovo State Statistics Office, the Novokuznetsk Administration and the Territorial Department of the Ministry of Health of Kuzbass, Novokuznetsk. A database has been developed in the licensed statistical package IBM SPSS Statistics-19. A comparative analysis of independent groups of indicators was performed using the Mann-Whitney criterion (U); the trend in indicators was determined by the method of correlation analysis of tau Kendall (τ), graphical analysis was carried out in the MS Excel-2013 program. Results. Until 2015, trends in fertility and mortality in the Russian Federation were positive. Since 2017, the birth rate has decreased, since 2019 – mortality has increased. Mortality is higher than fertility. Statistically significant growth trends were revealed in the dynamics in indicators of the Russian population younger than working age and indicators of the Russian population older than working age. The risks of demographic indicators in Novokuznetsk have been identified. The number of the working age population in Novokuznetsk and the number of the employed are decreasing, which can be explained by the unfavorable trend related to outflow of young people leaving in search of work in more promising cities. Conclusion. It is necessary to undertake effective social measures to increase birth rates in the groups of young women, increase the total fertility rate, as well as develop promising industrial production and incentive social measures to prevent the outflow of young population.