Malaria risk and temperature: Influences from global climate change and local land use practices

Patz, Jonathan A.; Olson, Sarah H.

doi:10.1073/pnas.0601493103

Cited by 264 publications

(176 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Patterns seen here in Odonata are likely to be seen in other insects with aquatic stages to their life cycles. As a greater portion of the year becomes suitable for warm-adapted taxa such as Odonata, there is an increased risk of successful colonisation and persistence by disease vectors, which appear to be shifting distributions as temperatures increase (Patz & Olson 2006). …”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical changes in the phenology of British Odonata are related to climate

Hassall¹,

Thompson²,

French³

et al. 2007

Global Change Biol

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Responses of biota to climate change take a number of forms including distributional shifts, behavioural changes and life history changes. This study examined an extensive set of biological records to investigate changes in the timing of life history transitions (specifically emergence) in British Odonata between 1960 and 2004. The results show that there has been a significant, consistent advance in phenology in the taxon as a whole over the period of warming that is mediated by life history traits. British odonates without an egg diapause significantly advanced the leading edge (first quartile date) of the flight period by a mean of 2.73 days per decade ± 0.055 (s.e.m., n=19) or 5.82 ± 1.15 (s.e.m., n=19) per degree rise in temperature. Species exhibiting a diapause in the egg stage did not respond significantly to increases in UK temperatures. This study represents the first review of changes in odonate phenology in relation to climate change and shows that responses to global warming are mediated by life-history traits. The results suggest that the damped temperature oscillations experienced by aquatic organisms compared to terrestrial organisms are sufficient to evoke phenological responses similar to those of purely terrestrial taxa.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical changes in the phenology of British Odonata are related to climate

Hassall¹,

Thompson²,

French³

et al. 2007

Global Change Biol

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“…Malaria is an extremely climate-sensitive disease (Rogers and Randolph, 2000) common in the tropics, (Patz and Olson, 2006), but also reported in mild-to-cold climates (Hulden, 2009). Rainfall and temperature anomalies are widely considered to be a major driver of inter-annual variability of malaria incidence in the semi-arid areas of Africa (Connor et al, 1999), and Thomson et al (2005), recently recorded a warming trend in the East African highlands that corresponded with concomitant increases in malaria incidences (Pascual et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introduction and Purposementioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Run Relative Importance of Temperature as the Main Driver to Malaria Transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: A Simple Econometric Approach

et al. 2014

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Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria districts and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of malaria at district level in the province; determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their short and long run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather Services while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship for rainfall, r= 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, and a bi-directional causality exists between rainfall and temperature and temperature to rainfall and from rainfall to temperature, F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14 with 001 . 0   respectively in both cases. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo Province.

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“…For Plasmodium falciparum, the major malaria species throughout much of Africa, the relationship between ambient temperature (T) and the EIP is approximated by EIP ϭ 111/(T-16), describing the iconic Detinova curve (11,12). Use of this equation is ubiquitous, with the vast majority of studies deriving EIP using measures of average monthly temperature to predict current malaria risk, and hence identify priority areas for allocation of resources for disease control and to assess the impact of climate change on global malaria burdens (8,(13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the link between malaria risk and climate

Paaijmans

Read

Thomas

2009

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

387

373

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The incubation period for malaria parasites within the mosquito is exquisitely temperature-sensitive, so that temperature is a major determinant of malaria risk. Epidemiological models are increasingly used to guide allocation of disease control resources and to assess the likely impact of climate change on global malaria burdens. Temperature-based malaria transmission is generally incorporated into these models using mean monthly temperatures,

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Malaria risk and temperature: Influences from global climate change and local land use practices

Cited by 264 publications

References 18 publications

Historical changes in the phenology of British Odonata are related to climate

Historical changes in the phenology of British Odonata are related to climate

Long-Run Relative Importance of Temperature as the Main Driver to Malaria Transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: A Simple Econometric Approach

Understanding the link between malaria risk and climate

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