2022
DOI: 10.1186/s12936-022-04417-x
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Malaria transmission in Nepal under climate change: anticipated shifts in extent and season, and comparison with risk definitions for intervention

Abstract: Background Climate and climate change affect the spatial pattern and seasonality of malaria risk. Season lengths and spatial extents of mapped current and future malaria transmission suitability predictions for Nepal were assessed for a combination of malaria vector and parasites: Anopheles stephensi and Plasmodium falciparum (ASPF) and An. stephensi and Plasmodium vivax (ASPV) and compared with observed estimates of malaria risk in Nepal. Methods … Show more

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Cited by 6 publications
(3 citation statements)
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“…Concurrently, several HaMR wards in the southwest disappeared during the study period, corroborating our previous study showing declining trends of several malaria indicators except imported malaria (Bhattarai et al, 2023 ). Some of this region may observe reduced transmission in the future with temperatures increasing to levels too high to be suitable for transmission (Bhattarai et al, 2022 ).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Concurrently, several HaMR wards in the southwest disappeared during the study period, corroborating our previous study showing declining trends of several malaria indicators except imported malaria (Bhattarai et al, 2023 ). Some of this region may observe reduced transmission in the future with temperatures increasing to levels too high to be suitable for transmission (Bhattarai et al, 2022 ).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This area is projected to observe additional emergence and increase in season length of malaria transmission suitability in the future (Bhattarai et al, 2022 ), pointing to the need to prioritize these areas for surveillance, and vigilance in emerging new risk areas. Malaria transmission has increased in the highland areas in different parts of the world due to climate change (Loevinsohn, 1994 ; Siraj et al, 2014 ).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In Asia, climate suitability for malaria is expected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo and parts of Cambodia, Malaysia and Indonesia; it is anticipated to increase in parts of China, Taiwan and Nepal,[ 38 39 ] potentially outside designated at-risk areas and, therefore, lacking targeted vector control interventions. [ 40 ] Land use changes also influence zoonotic malaria, which has been demonstrated in Malaysian Borneo, where Fornace et al . [ 41 ] developed a model incorporating mosquito and human space use data that predicted the majority (>90%) of infectious bites in surrounding residential household areas at forest edges.…”
Section: Effects Of Climate Change On Specific Infectious Diseases In...mentioning
confidence: 99%