Male Circumcision: A Means to Reduce HIV Transmission between Truckers and Female Sex Workers in Kenya

The history of coronavirus can be traced to the 1960s when B184 and 229E coronaviruses were discovered in the nasal washing of individuals with the common cold. There was no worry about such viruses until 2003 when the first major outbreak of SARS was discovered in southern China. The recent outbreak was in 2019 when a major outbreak of COVID-19 strain started in China. The World Health Organisation proclaimed COVID-19 as a pandemic in March 2020. Ever since this pandemic, several attempts to intervene in the spread has been tried, yet the pandemic is not dying. This persistence in the pandemic might be due to the presence of asymptomatic individuals. This unending pandemic has hit the Kenya economy badly. In this study, we mathematically investigate the effect of governmental and non-governmental intervention on the spread of COVID-19 in Kenya. To capture the effect of intervention effectively, the model considers the presence of asymptomatically infected individuals in the Kenya. The basic reproduction number is obtained using the next-generation matrix and the local stability of the equilibrium points are established. The effects of intervention on the spread of COVID-19 are simulated and illustrated as graphs. The results indicate that intervention in form awareness and public sensitisation reduces the Exposed class, Infected Classes and COVID-19-related death.

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“…The works of [15,16] and [17] show a procedure for finding the equilibrium points. By setting each of equations (2.1 -2.7) to zero ( [18]),…”

Section: Equilibrium Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modelling on Impact of Interventions in the Spread of Covid-19 in Kenya

Mwangi

Mutuku

2023

JAMCS

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“…Mathematical modelling provides scientists with a very economical approach to study the trend of an epidemic. The disease and its trend can be studied before it hits the population and vital recommendations can be made even before the disease hits the population [12,3,13,14,15,16,17]. In the case of COVID-19, scientists were quick to formulate mathematical models for the transmission of the disease [18,19,20,21,22,23].…”

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confidence: 99%

Investigating the Impact of TB or COVID-19 Infections on a Population Suffering from TB/COVID-19 Coinfection

Githinji,

Chepkwony

2024

Asian J. Prob. Stat.

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The discovery that the spread of tuberculosis reduced significantly in the last two years has been associated with the preventive measures placed to combat the spread of COVID-19. This shows a string correlation between the spread of COVID-19 and tuberculosis in any population. It is worth noting that tuberculosis and COVID-19 are among the leading most deadly diseases in the world today. The correlation in their spread also leaves us to believe that the spread of one can enhance the spread of the other. Hence, we propose the situation where a population is co-infected with the two diseases. The mathematical model is formulated using conservative laws and the resulting model analysed. The stability of the co-infection is analysed and the non-negativity conditions for the solution is established. It is found that tuberculosis sub-population reaches the highest capacity when the recruitment into the COVID-19 subpopulation is the lowest while the COVID-19 sub-population is attained when the rate of recruitment into the COVID-19 subpopulation is the highest.

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Modeling Zika Virus Disease Dynamics with Control Strategies

Helikumi,

Lolika,

Makau

et al. 2024

Informatics

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In this research, we formulated a fractional-order model for the transmission dynamics of Zika virus, incorporating three control strategies: health education campaigns, the use of insecticides, and preventive measures. We conducted a theoretical analysis of the model, obtaining the disease-free equilibrium and the basic reproduction number, and analyzing the existence and uniqueness of the model. Additionally, we performed model parameter estimation using real data on Zika virus cases reported in Colombia. We found that the fractional-order model provided a better fit to the real data compared to the classical integer-order model. A sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number was conducted using computed partial rank correlation coefficients to assess the impact of each parameter on Zika virus transmission. Furthermore, we performed numerical simulations to determine the effect of memory on the spread of Zika virus. The simulation results showed that the order of derivatives significantly impacts the dynamics of the disease. We also assessed the effect of the control strategies through simulations, concluding that the proposed interventions have the potential to significantly reduce the spread of Zika virus in the population.

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Male Circumcision: A Means to Reduce HIV Transmission between Truckers and Female Sex Workers in Kenya

Cited by 3 publications

References 19 publications

Mathematical Modelling on Impact of Interventions in the Spread of Covid-19 in Kenya

Mathematical Modelling on Impact of Interventions in the Spread of Covid-19 in Kenya

Investigating the Impact of TB or COVID-19 Infections on a Population Suffering from TB/COVID-19 Coinfection

Modeling Zika Virus Disease Dynamics with Control Strategies

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