Malthus is still wrong: we can feed a world of 9–10 billion, but only by reducing food demand

Abstract

In 1798, Thomas Robert Malthus published ‘An essay on the principle of population’ in which he concluded that: ‘The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.’ Over the following century he was criticised for underestimating the potential for scientific and technological innovation to provide positive change. Since then, he has been proved wrong, with a number of papers published during the past few decades pointing out why he has been proved wrong so many times. In the present paper, I briefly review the main changes in food production in the past that have allowed us to continue to meet ever growing demand for food, and I examine the possibility of these same innovations delivering food security in the future. On the basis of recent studies, I conclude that technological innovation can no longer be relied upon to prove Malthus wrong as we strive to feed 9–10 billion people by 2050. Unless we are prepared to accept a wide range of significant, undesirable environmental consequences, technology alone cannot provide food security in 2050. Food demand, particularly the demand for livestock products, will need to be managed if we are to continue to prove Malthus wrong into the future.

Changes in Soil Carbon Stocks under Integrated Crop-Livestock-Forest System in the Brazilian Amazon Region

“…As described by [3] and [4], while ensuring food security, there is an urgent need to reduce the impact of food production on the climate [5] and to improve the resilience of food production to future environmental changes [6], [7]. According to the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the agricultural sector will be greatly affected by global climate change with impacts on its productivity, management and spatial distribution of crops.…”

Fluxos de óxido nitroso em sistema de integração lavoura-pecuária-floresta

“…O sistema de integração-lavoura-pecuária-floresta (ILPF) merece destaque como sistema de produção sustentável (Bonaudo et al, 2014;Franzluebbers et al, 2014), por evitar o desmatamento, respeitar os preceitos de segurança alimentar e da agricultura sustentável, e levar em consideração um cenário de crescente demanda por alimento e energia, frente a uma disponibilidade cada vez menor de recursos naturais (Lemaire et al, 2014;Smith, 2015). O uso desse sistema está em expansão no Brasil, apesar de não haver dados confiáveis sobre a área implantada com esses sistemas no país.…”

Future Global Change and Cognition

“…Climate change is an important global challenge, but it is not the only one. For example, to feed the planet's growing population, humans have to produce as much food during the next 35 years as has ever been produced during the history of agriculture (Smith, ). This demand cannot be met by sustainable intensification alone (Bajželj et al., ) and will therefore require demand‐side interventions such as a reduced reliance on meat products and reduction in food waste.…”