Malthusian Dynamics in a Diverging Europe: Northern Italy, 1650–1881

Abstract

Recent empirical research has questioned the validity of using Malthusian theory in pre-industrial England. Using real wage and vital rate data for the years 1650-1881, I provide empirical estimates for a different regionNorthern Italy. The empirical methodology is theoretically underpinned by a simple Malthusian model, in which population, real wages and vital rates are determined endogenously. My findings strongly support the existence of a 'Malthusian' economy where population growth depressed living standards, which in turn influenced vital rates. In addition, I find no evidence of Boserupian effects as increases in population failed to spur sustained technological growth.JEL Classifications: N33, J13

Reconstruction of regional and national population using intermittent census-type data: The case of Portugal, 1527–1864

“…The north of the country was always more 2 Such studies normally require annual data, which is why they are almost exclusively done using English data. For an exception (which relies on vital dates, not stocks), see Fernihough (2013). See also Chiarini (2010).…”

Italy in the Renaissance: a leading economy in the European context, 1350–1550

“…Both Fernihough, ‘Malthusian dynamics’, and Malanima, ‘Le crisi tradizionali’, reach the same results with different procedures. A non‐Malthusian view of the Italian economy is presented by Chiarini, ‘Was Malthus right?’.…”

The population history of Germany: research strategy and preliminary results

“…The result is e b,w = 0.30 for the birth rate and e d,w = -0.67 for the death rate. These values may be compared with Weir's (1984) study of the demographic effects of grain price variations on vital rates in France and England as well as with Fernihough (2010) who applies a similar design as ours on Italian data. Our elasticity of the death rate on the real wage is on the same level with the positive check in France during the late seventeenth and early eighteenth century, and considerably above the value recorded for England and Italy.…”

“…While mutually contradictive, both studies are difficult to reconcile both with earlier research by Galloway and Weir and the literature in growth economics invoked above. Studies on other European countries reaching back before the middle of the eighteenth century still remain rare (for Italy, see Galloway 1994b;Fernihough 2010). A clarification of the methodology used to assess Malthusian adaptation and a multiplication of long series of vital events for other European countries is required to advance research in the field.…”

“…The design follows the earlier studies by Eckstein et al (1985) and Nicolini (2007;cf. also Crafts and Mills 2009;Fernihough 2010).…”