Managing construction risks of AP1000 nuclear power plants in China

Wang, Shufeng; Wahab, M.I.M.; Fang, Liping

doi:10.1007/s11518-011-5157-y

Cited by 10 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…By using (6) and (7) repeatedly to quantify the output of each Boolean gate in the LTCS fault tree, the best estimate, the lower bound, and the upper bound fuzzy probabilities of the other intermediate events, including the top event of the LTCS fault tree, can be generated as shown in Table 5.…”

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confidence: 99%

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A Fuzzy Probability Algorithm for Evaluating the AP1000 Long Term Cooling System to Mitigate Large Break LOCA

Purba

2016

Atom Indo.

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Components of nuclear power plants do not always have historical failure data to probabilistically evaluate their reliability characteristics. To overcome this drawback, an alternative approach has been proposed by involving experts to qualitatively justify basic event likelihood occurences. However, expert judgments always involve epistemic uncertainty and this uncertainty needs to be quantified. Existing fault tree analysis quantifies uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation, which is based on probability distributions. Since expert judgments are not described in probability distributions, Monte Carlo simulation is not appropriate for evaluating epistemic uncertainty. Therefore, a new approach needs to be developed to overcome this limitation. This study proposes a fuzzy probability algorithm to evaluate epistemic uncertainties in fault tree analysis. In the proposed algorithm, fuzzy probabilities are used to represent epistemic uncertainties of basic events, intermediate events, and the top event. To propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainty in fault tree analysis, a fuzzy multiplication rule and a fuzzy complementation rule are applied to substitute the AND Boolean and OR Boolean gates, respectively. To see the feasibility and applicability of the proposed algorithm, a case-based experiment on uncertainty evaluation of the AP1000 long term cooling system to mitigate the large break loss of coolant accident is discussed. The result shows that the best estimate probability to describe the failure of AP1000 long term cooling system generated by the proposed algorithmis 3.15×10-11 , which is very closed to the reference value of 1.11×10-11. This result confirms that the proposed algorithm offers a good alternative approach to quantify uncertainties in probabilistic safety assessment by fault tree analysis.

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confidence: 99%

“…Since the AP1000 is still under construction [6,10,11], historical failure data is still unavailable to statistically estimate basic event probabilities. Hence, the reliability of the AP1000 passive safety systems has to be studied by a fault tree analysis (FTA) using generic data [9,[12][13][14].…”

Section: Introduction mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Fuzzy Probability Algorithm for Evaluating the AP1000 Long Term Cooling System to Mitigate Large Break LOCA

Purba

2016

Atom Indo.

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“…To correlate experts' credibility to their judgments, different justification weights from 0 to 1 may be assigned to each expert as in (4).…”

Section: Step 1: Basic Event Likely Occurrence Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In line with this, the concepts of passive systems have been the focus of recent innovations to the designs of nuclear power plant safety systems. The Westinghouse AP1000 is a two-loop advanced light water reactor which implements passive concept to its safety systems based on gravity, convection, condensation and heat circulation [1][2][3][4][5]. AP1000 has been certified as a generation III+ reactor by the United States Nuclear Energy Commission (US-NRC) and the European Utility Requirements [6,7].…”

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confidence: 99%

“…E-mail address: purba-jh@batan.go.id power plant design whose all safety features depend on passive systems [9] and is currently under construction in China [4,10,11]. Even though, a passive system may be more reliable than an active system [5], the possibility of the passive system to fail still exists due to the failures of the passive system itself to response to the physical phenomenon in which it is based on.…”

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Reliability Study of the AP1000 Passive Safety System by Fuzzy Approach

Purba

Tjahyani

2014

Atom Indo.

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Fuzzy probability and α‐cut based‐fault tree analysis approach to evaluate the reliability and safety of complex engineering systems

Purba

Tjahyani

Susila

et al. 2022

Quality & Reliability Eng

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Reliability and safety are very critical in complex engineering systems such as chemical and nuclear industries. Fault tree analysis (FTA) has been widely applied to evaluate the reliability and safety of complex engineering systems. This approach assumes that systems always have exact component failure probabilities. However, this assumption is not always true in real‐world applications. To deal with this, a number of scholars have integrated fuzzy approach into FTA of engineering systems whose component exact probabilities cannot be collected. Furthermore, simple fuzzy arithmetic operations on membership function have also been proposed to quantify Boolean gates for propagating uncertainties from basic event fuzzy probabilities into the top event fuzzy probabilities. In this study, fuzzy arithmetic operations on α‐cuts, as opposed to simple fuzzy arithmetic operations, are proposed. The significance of the α‐cut is that each α‐cut can uniquely represents each fuzzy probability. In order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach, the reliability of the long‐term cooling system of the Westinghouse AP1000 to mitigate a large break loss of coolant accident is evaluated and the results are compared to the reliability of the same system quantified by conventional FTA published in qualified scientific journals. The results of the benchmarking confirm that the proposed approach can be practicably implemented to estimate the reliability and safety of complex engineering systems whose basic event reliability are characterized by fuzzy probabilities. To be applied in other complex engineering systems, safety analysts have to concern for some steps, which are particularly developed for a specific application, such as failure possibility distribution and its corresponding fuzzy probability distribution and the selection of a defuzzification technique.

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Managing construction risks of AP1000 nuclear power plants in China

Cited by 10 publications

References 25 publications

A Fuzzy Probability Algorithm for Evaluating the AP1000 Long Term Cooling System to Mitigate Large Break LOCA

A Fuzzy Probability Algorithm for Evaluating the AP1000 Long Term Cooling System to Mitigate Large Break LOCA

Reliability Study of the AP1000 Passive Safety System by Fuzzy Approach

Fuzzy probability and α‐cut based‐fault tree analysis approach to evaluate the reliability and safety of complex engineering systems

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