“…In a changing climate scenario it is almost certain the occurrence of increases in frequency and magnitude of daily temperature extremes and decreases in frequency and magnitude of daily minimum temperature extremes (Peterson et al ., ). These changes may happen already this century (Cutter et al ., ). So, it is expectable that extreme weather phenomena related to air temperature, like HWs and CSs, are likely to change towards higher maximum and minimum temperatures and more hot days and warm nights (WMO, ).…”
This study investigates the impacts of climate change scenario on summer heat waves' (HWs) and winter cold spells' (CSs) characteristics for 12 locations over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). These characteristics are duration, recovery factor and intensity. Two future time slices of the chosen scenario are studied, namely, the periods 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 which are compared with a reference climate for the recent-past (1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005). The RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario is considered. The minimum and maximum daily temperature were obtained for these periods through regional model simulations using the Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model forced with the MPI-ESM-LR model. The model was validated against EOBS and SPAIN02 datasets. The model shows 90th/10th percentile temperature (i.e. thresholds to identify HW/CS) biases. Therefore, HW/CS numbers and properties were evaluated using the model's respective thresholds. HW/CS numbers and characteristics were also compared between the model and EOBS derived data. Probability density functions (PDFs) of the duration, recovery factor and intensity show significant changes in the mean and variance for the summer HWs. Differences, between future and recent-past climate in the extremes are evaluated by the 95th percentile which show an increase in the duration and intensity of the HWs for the future time slices. Very few CSs were detectable in the mid-term future (2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050)(2051)(2052)(2053)(2054)(2055)(2056)(2057)(2058)(2059)(2060)(2061)(2062)(2063)(2064)(2065) and none in the long-term future (2080-2100), except for Barcelona. For most locations, the CS for the future are of smaller duration and intensity. The PDF of the recovery factor suggests smaller absolute differences between the minimum and maximum temperature during winter which is also confirmed by the percentile analysis. The increase in the duration and intensity of HWs is greater in the long-term future than in the mid-term future, pointing for a warmer IP with more and longer HWs towards the end of the XXI century.
“…In a changing climate scenario it is almost certain the occurrence of increases in frequency and magnitude of daily temperature extremes and decreases in frequency and magnitude of daily minimum temperature extremes (Peterson et al ., ). These changes may happen already this century (Cutter et al ., ). So, it is expectable that extreme weather phenomena related to air temperature, like HWs and CSs, are likely to change towards higher maximum and minimum temperatures and more hot days and warm nights (WMO, ).…”
This study investigates the impacts of climate change scenario on summer heat waves' (HWs) and winter cold spells' (CSs) characteristics for 12 locations over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). These characteristics are duration, recovery factor and intensity. Two future time slices of the chosen scenario are studied, namely, the periods 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 which are compared with a reference climate for the recent-past (1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005). The RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario is considered. The minimum and maximum daily temperature were obtained for these periods through regional model simulations using the Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model forced with the MPI-ESM-LR model. The model was validated against EOBS and SPAIN02 datasets. The model shows 90th/10th percentile temperature (i.e. thresholds to identify HW/CS) biases. Therefore, HW/CS numbers and properties were evaluated using the model's respective thresholds. HW/CS numbers and characteristics were also compared between the model and EOBS derived data. Probability density functions (PDFs) of the duration, recovery factor and intensity show significant changes in the mean and variance for the summer HWs. Differences, between future and recent-past climate in the extremes are evaluated by the 95th percentile which show an increase in the duration and intensity of the HWs for the future time slices. Very few CSs were detectable in the mid-term future (2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050)(2051)(2052)(2053)(2054)(2055)(2056)(2057)(2058)(2059)(2060)(2061)(2062)(2063)(2064)(2065) and none in the long-term future (2080-2100), except for Barcelona. For most locations, the CS for the future are of smaller duration and intensity. The PDF of the recovery factor suggests smaller absolute differences between the minimum and maximum temperature during winter which is also confirmed by the percentile analysis. The increase in the duration and intensity of HWs is greater in the long-term future than in the mid-term future, pointing for a warmer IP with more and longer HWs towards the end of the XXI century.
“…Tensions often arise between the need to restore buildings and infrastructure rapidly to a pre‐disaster state, and to adopt a BBB approach to the recovery process (Lindell, 2013; IDMC, 2021). As Cutter et al (2012, p. 301) note: Often following large disasters, top‐down programs result in rebuilding houses but fail to provide homes. Moreover, haste in reconstruction, while achieving short‐term objectives, often results in unsustainable outcomes and increasing vulnerability.…”
Section: Return Bias and Nationally Owned Development Solutions In Re...mentioning
Displacement in the context of disasters and climate change has gained considerable attention in international policy processes pertaining to migration and displacement over the past few years. However, analysis of currently dominant understandings of disaster displacement and its solutions at the global level, and how these translate into practice in relation to operational realities at the national level, remains scarce. This paper seeks to promote greater reflections on the discourse of displacement solutions in the context of disasters and climate change. It examines both the advancements and remaining gaps in approaches to disasters, displacement, and solutions and how these collectively shape the conceptualisation of solutions to disaster displacement. The inquiry sheds light on the dominant framings and their underlying assumptions and highlights the implications that they entail for understanding and responding to disaster displacement. It also underscores the importance of critical engagement with discursive practices at the international and national level.
“…In Pakistan and Chile, for instance, glacier flood warnings, evacuation and post-disaster relief have largely been community led (Ashraf et al, 2012;Anacona et al, 2015b). Cutter et al (2012) highlight the post-recovery and reconstruction period as an opportunity to build new resilience and adaptive capacities. Ziegler et al (2014) exemplify consequences when such process is rushed or poorly supported by appropriate long-term planning, as illustrated following the 2013 Kedarnath glacier flood disaster, where guest houses and even schools were being rebuilt in the same exposed locations, driven by short-term perspectives.…”
Section: Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptationmentioning
in abundance (high confidence). While the plant productivity has generally increased, the actual impact on provisioning, regulating and cultural ecosystem services varies greatly (high confidence). {2.3.3}
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