Objective-We determined if subthreshold hypomanic symptoms predicted new onset mania or hypomania.Method-We identified 550 individuals followed for at least one year in the National Institute of Mental Health Collaborative Depression Study with a diagnosis of major depression at intake. All participants were screened at baseline for a total of five manic symptoms: elevated mood, decreased need for sleep, high energy, increased goal-directed activity, and grandiosity. Participants were followed prospectively for a mean of 17.5 and up to 31 years. Longitudinal Interval Follow-up Examinations monitored course of illness and identified any hypomania or mania. The association of subthreshold hypomanic symptoms at baseline with subsequent hypomania or mania was determined in survival analyses using Cox Proportional-Hazards Regression.Results-With a cumulative probability of one-in-four on survival analysis, 19.6% (N=108) of the sample experienced hypomania or mania, resulting in revision of diagnoses for 12.2% to bipolar II and 7.5% to bipolar I disorder. The number of subthreshold hypomanic symptoms, psychosis, and age of onset predicted progression to bipolar disorder. Less need for sleep, unusual energy, and increased goal-directed activities were specifically implicated.Conclusions-Symptoms of hypomania, even when of low intensity, were very frequently associated with subsequent progression to bipolar disorder, although the majority of patients who converted did not have any symptoms of hypomania at baseline. Therefore, continued monitoring for the possibility of progression to bipolar disorder over the long-term course of major depressive disorder is necessary.