Manifestation and possible reasons of ∼60-year oscillations in solar-atmospheric links

Veretenenko, S. V.; Ogurtsov, M. G.

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2019.03.022

Cited by 21 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Thus, based on the correlation between T&SSN and T&TSI, a centenary warming effect in the period of 1890–1960 (approximately during solar cycles 13–20) is mainly related to the change of solar activity. Similar results are shown for global T in Reid (1991), Friis‐Chritensen and Larsen (1991), Zherebtsov et al (2019), and Veretenenko and Ogurtsov (2019). Of course one could not exclude roles of other phenomena, among them, human activities, but data of T in Tbilisi and Poland single‐valued show that a decisive role in centenary changes (global warming) belongs to the changes of solar activity before years of 60s of last century (1890–1960).…”

Section: On Relationship Of the Near‐surface Air Temperature And Solasupporting

confidence: 82%

Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016

Modzelewska

Alania

Kapanadze³

et al. 2020

Earth and Space Science

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Analyses of near-surface air temperature T in Poland for 1781-2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881-2016 have been carried out. We show that the centenary warming effect in Poland and in Tbilisi has almost the same peculiarities. An average centenary warming effect ΔT = (1.08 ± 0.29)°C is observed in Poland and in Tbilisi for 1881-2016. A warming effect is larger in winter season (ΔT =~1.15°C) than in other seasons (average warming effect for these seasons ΔT =~0.95°C). We show that a centenary warming is mainly related to the change of solar activity (estimated by sunspot number [SSN] and total solar irradiance [TSI]), particularly, a time interval about~70 years (1890-1960), when correlation coefficients between 11-year smoothed SSN and T, and TSI and T are high, r = 0.66 ± 0.07 and r = 0.73 ± 0.07 for Poland and r = 0.82 ± 0.05 and r = 0.90 ± 0.05 for Tbilisi, respectively; in this period solar activity contributes decisively in the global warming. We show that a global warming effect equals zero based on the temperature T data in Poland for period 1781-1880, when human activities were relatively less than in 1881-2016. We recognize a few feeble~20 ± 3 years of disturbances in the temperature changes for period 1885-1980, most likely related with the fluctuations of solar magnetic cycles. We distinguish the fluctuations of~7-8 years in Poland's T data, possibly connected with local effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

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Section: On Relationship Of the Near‐surface Air Temperature And Solasupporting

confidence: 82%

Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016

Modzelewska

Alania

Kapanadze³

et al. 2020

Earth and Space Science

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“…Стратосферный полярный вихрь представляет собой крупномасштабную циклоническую циркуляцию, формирующуюся в полярной атмосфере выше уровня 500 гПа и достигающую наибольшего развития в зимние месяцы. Состояние вихря оказывает существенное влияние на взаимодействие тропосферы и стратосферы [1], эволюцию динамических процессов в нижней атмосфере [2], а также играет важную роль в формировании эффектов солнечной активности в тропосферной циркуляции [3]. Расположение вихря создает благоприятные условия для работы ряда физических механизмов солнечно-атмосферных связей, включающих изменения скорости ионизации за счет космических лучей [4][5], что делает его важным связующим звеном между солнечной активностью и состоянием нижней атмосферы.…”

Section: Doi: 1031725/0552-5829-2020-45-48unclassified

Effects of Energetic Solar Proton Events of the Twenty-Third Solar Cycle on Intensity of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex

Veretenenko¹

2020

Proceedings of the 24th All-Russia Conference on Solar and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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Effects of solar proton events (SPEs) occurring in the 23 rd solar cycle (1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008), with energy of particles exceeding 90 MeV, on zonal velocity of western winds in the stratosphere were studied on the base of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. It was revealed that most pronounced changes of zonal wind velocity associated with the events in the cold half a year take place at latitudes 50-80ºN, which is the region of formation of the stratospheric polar vortex playing an important part in the mechanism of solar-atmospheric links. A noticeable increase of zonal wind velocity in this region was detected for the events occurring in the west phase of quasi-biennial oscillations of the atmosphere. The obtained results allow suggesting that intrusions of solar protons in the middle atmosphere may contribute to the polar vortex intensification, with a possible mechanism involving changes in chemical composition and temperature regime of the polar atmosphere.

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“…Видно, что в возмущенный период 13-23.01 имело место значительное увеличение скорости ветра: в нижней стратосфере (изобарические уровни 100-50 гПа (15-20 км)) -на 15 м·с -1 , в верхней стратосфере (уровни 30-10 гПа (25-35 км)) -на 20-30 м·с -1 . Ранее было показано [5], что интенсивность полярного вихря обнаруживает вариации с периодом 60 лет. В 1980-2000 гг.…”

Section: Doi: 1031725/0552-5829-2019-91-94unclassified

Influence of Solar-Geophysical Factors on the State of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex

Veretenenko¹,

Ogurtsov²,

Ras³

2019

Proceedings of the 23rd All-Russia Conference on Solar and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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The stratospheric polar vortex is an important link between the circulation of the lower atmosphere at extratropical latitudes and solar activity. The vortex evolution influences to a great extent the character of solar-atmospheric relations. In this work we study changes of the vortex intensity associated with different phenomena of solar activity on the base of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A pronounced intensification of western wind velocity was found in the polar stratosphere during powerful solar proton events (SPEs) in January, 2005 and October-November, 2003. It was shown that auroral activity and SPE-induced ionization increases may be possible factors of the vortex intensification. At the multidecadal time scale, the vortex was found to be strengthened during the period of increase in occurrence of magnetic storms with gradual commencements (1980-2000), whereas during the period of decrease in occurrence of these storms (1950-1980) the vortex was weaker. The obtained results confirm that the intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex may be influenced by solar activity phenomena both at the day-to-day and multidecadal time scales.Стратосферный полярный вихрь является одним из наиболее важных связующих звеньев между циркуляцией нижней атмосферы во внетропических широтах и солнечной активностью, что обусловлено благоприятным широтным и высотным расположением области его формирования. Эволюция вихря оказывает существенное влияние на характер солнечноатмосферных связей [1]. В настоящей работе исследуются изменения интенсивности вихря (скорости западного ветра в стратосфере высоких широт) в зависимости от различных явлений, обусловленных солнечной активностью, на основе данных реанализа NCEP/NCAR [2].Поскольку в области формирования полярного вихря наблюдаются низкие пороги геомагнитного обрезания и, соответственно, высокие скорости стратосферной ионизации за счет космических лучей [3], в качестве возможного фактора интенсивности вихря были рассмотрены мощные солнечные протонные события (СПС) в январе 2005 г. Во время СПС 15.01, 16.01 и 17.01 наблюдались возрастания потоков частиц с энергиями 165-500 МэВ, достигающих высот 30 км и ниже (рис. 1а). Наиболее мощ-

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Manifestation and possible reasons of ∼60-year oscillations in solar-atmospheric links

Cited by 21 publications

References 43 publications

Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016

Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016

Effects of Energetic Solar Proton Events of the Twenty-Third Solar Cycle on Intensity of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex

Influence of Solar-Geophysical Factors on the State of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex

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