Mankind at the Turning Point – The Second Report of the Club of Rome

Mesarovic, M.; Pestel, Edward; Karunaratne, Neil Dias

doi:10.1016/s0313-5926(76)50005-1

Cited by 73 publications

(25 citation statements)

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“…Leontief (New York Times, October 14, 1976) is more cautious: "No insurmountable physical barriers exist within ; the 20th century to the accelerated development of the developing regions." In respect of the proximity of the limits to growth Mesarovic and Pestel (1974) are intermediate between the extremes of the Meadows's and the Bariloche group. The spectrum of population growth can be filled out from other, less publicized studies.…”

Section: Understanding World Modelsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Understanding world models

Keyfitz

1979

Syst. Res.

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Computer models of the world system produce very different results, ranging from economic collapse and massive starvation in the 21st century to universal prosperity for double or triple the present world population. The strikingly different conclusions that arise make it urgent to compare them effectively with one another, and see what it is about them that produces such diverse policies. Insofar as the policies are similar, one would like to know more about how they arise from the models. This paper suggests a line of analysis that permits comparison of properties among such models. It takes up two ways of seeing what is in a model in addition to examining its documentation: first, making alternative transparent models that check the partial results of the complex model; and, second, black‐box experiments leading to a truncated linear form of the complex model. These two methods of assessment are designed to replace most of the documentation, and to allow the user to understand more effectively what assumptions one commits oneself to in using the model.

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Section: Understanding World Modelsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Understanding world models

Keyfitz

1979

Syst. Res.

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“…Esta publicación revela la pertinencia de hacer frente a los inconvenientes en ciernes que confrontaría nuestra sociedad, no de manera uniforme, sino en un cartabón de crecimiento diferencial en el que regiones del mundo se engranan de forma muy compleja. Esta investigación expone la coyuntura de pronosticar las dificultades y alinear una serie de políti-cas públicas para alcanzar la solución a los efectos de carácter negativo emanados de las actividades productivas realizadas por nuestra sociedad (Mesarovic y Pestel, 1974).…”

Section: ¿Cuál Ha Sido El Trazo Del Desarrollo?unclassified

El Axioma Del Desarrollo Sustentable

Martínez

2013

Revista De Ciencias Sociales

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La construcción histórica de la relación entre la naturaleza y el ser humano, pone de manifiesto el proceso dialéctico existente que ahora denominamos medio ambiente y desarrollo. Hoy, esta relación se analiza a través del desarrollo sustentable. Este axioma cuenta con varios puntos de vistas teóricos que pretenden una adecuada relación entre el medio ambiente y el desarrollo, pero además, pretenden orientar el progreso de nuestra sociedad. En el presente trabajo se exhibe su ascenso y definición. PALABRAS CLAVE: DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE * MEDIO A MBIENTE * DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO * SOCIEDAD ABSTRACTThe historical construction of the relationship between nature and humans, highlighting the dialectical process exists; now, we refer to it like environment and development. Today, this relationship is analyzed through sustainable development. This axiom has several theoretical views, which seeks an appropriate balance between environment and development, but also, aims to guide the progress of our society. In this article, we show its rise and definition.

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“…Substantial improvements in the methodology and data were introduced in a second report to the Club of Rome by Mesarovic and Pestel (1974). Although they used a set of interacting regions of the world-this being the first time that such a model had been employed-the nature of the debate on world modelling was not substantially changed.…”

Section: Historical Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Leontief and the future of the world economy

Montes¹

2004

Wassily Leontief and Input-Output Economics

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The world model was designed by Leontief as a tool for exploring the future of the world economy. This paper reviews the process of design and calibration of this model, and the main simulation runs that were performed in the early 1970s looking towards 2000. The results of that scenario are compared with observed developments during the period. An agenda is provided for further research in this area with models incorporating inputoutput tables and the new scenario's methodologies.

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Mankind at the Turning Point – The Second Report of the Club of Rome

Cited by 73 publications

References 0 publications

Understanding world models

Understanding world models

El Axioma Del Desarrollo Sustentable

Leontief and the future of the world economy

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