Abstract:Profitability of technical-analysis strategies has been explained with reference to central-bank intervention in markets (Neely 1998; LeBaron 1999; Saacke 2002). I argue that central-bank intervention is a market shock which leads to a generation of trends, making technical analysis profitable. Looking at empirical evidence from the Indian foreign-exchange market, I find returns calculated for the entire period are consistently and substantially higher than when intervention periods are removed. Thirteen out o… Show more
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