Mapping climate change adaptive capacity and vulnerability of smallholder agricultural livelihoods in Central America: ranking and descriptive approaches to support adaptation strategies

Abstract

Climate change is one of the main threats to rural livelihoods in Central America, especially for small and medium-sized farmers. Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) integrates biophysical and socioeconomic information to support policy decisions. We present a CCVA of agricultural livelihoods of four countries in Central America, at the municipality level. We use the IPCC definition of vulnerability, and address the potential impact of climate change on suitability for major crops and adaptive capacity using indicators of basic human needs, as well as resources for innovation and action framed in a livelihoods approach. Adaptive capacity was estimated using ranking techniques for municipalities and descriptive multivariate analysis. Projected changes in climate suitability for crops show a wide variation between Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, and within each country. Cluster analysis of adaptive capacity values shows a gradient between higher values close to urban areas and lower values in agricultural frontier areas and in those prone to drought. Municipalities with a high proportional area under subsistence crops tend to have less resources to promote innovation and action for adaptation. Our results suggest that a full spectrum of adaptation levels and strategies must be considered in the region to achieve

Climate change, ecosystems and smallholder agriculture in Central America: an introduction to the special issue

“…Existing climate information products in Central America do not usually include recommendations on farm or ecosystem management (Bouroncle et al 2015). Information products in the region are typically of a general nature without a specific time horizon and do not include information for particular regions or crops (Bouroncle et al 2015).…”

“…Information products in the region are typically of a general nature without a specific time horizon and do not include information for particular regions or crops (Bouroncle et al 2015). Such lack of information saliency and usability are typical limitations of information products (Lemos et al 2012).…”

“…This lack has been overcome, for example, in nearby Caribbean countries through boundary organizations that guide information brokering to understand how sectors experience risks associated to climate (Guido et al 2016). For the limited but growing number of information products in the region that specifically address agriculture or ecosystems, many lack interdisciplinary approaches (Bouroncle et al 2015). However, products that provide information to support planting dates and selection of crop varieties now exist in the region (CATIE and CCAFS 2014).…”

“…There are typically weak interactions between data producers in universities and on-farm users in the region, which are common barriers when the scale of information, such as that produced in climate change analyses, has broad geographic coverage (Lemos et al 2012;Mase and Prokopy 2013). Many products are limited by lack of appropriate information scale, use of language not tailored for the end-user, or ineffective mechanisms of information diffusion (Bouroncle et al 2015). In this issue, Donatti et al (2016) address these topics by examining the information that policy makers need in order to take action on climate change adaptation in Central America and providing suggestions on how scientific and technical information can be more frequently used in decision making.…”

“…Bouroncle et al (2016) address the adaptive capacity and vulnerability of smallholder agricultural livelihoods in four countries in the region at the municipality level. Holland et al (2016) present an innovative methodology, applicable in data-poor environments, for mapping the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers to climate change at the landscape level, using expert knowledge.…”