Mapping global environmental suitability for Zika virus

Messina, Jane P.; Kraemer, Moritz U. G.; Brady, Oliver J.; Pigott, David M.; Shearer, Freya M; Weiss, Daniel J.; Golding, Nick; Ruktanonchai, Corrine W.; Gething, Peter W.; Cohn, Emily; Brownstein, John S.; Khan, Kamran; Tatem, Andrew J.; Jaenisch, Thomas; Murray, Christopher J L; Marinho, Fátima; Scott, Thomas W.; Hay, Simon I.

doi:10.7554/elife.15272

Cited by 329 publications

(391 citation statements)

References 105 publications

(132 reference statements)

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“…Ascertaining the portion of this population that is truly at risk is an important priority. One recent estimate 3 suggested that 5.42 million childbearing women live in areas of the Americas that are suitable for Zika occurrence. To improve on that estimate, which did not take into account the protective effects of herd immunity, we developed a new approach that combines classic results from epidemiological theory with seroprevalence data and highly spatially resolved data about drivers of transmission to make location-specific projections of epidemic attack rates.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Model-based projections of Zika virus infections in childbearing women in the Americas

et al. 2016

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Zika virus is a mosquito-borne pathogen that is rapidly spreading across the Americas. Due to associations between Zika virus infection and a range of fetal maladies 1,2 , the epidemic trajectory of this viral infection poses a significant concern for the nearly 15 million children born in the Americas each year. Ascertaining the portion of this population that is truly at risk is an important priority. One recent estimate 3 suggested that 5.42 million childbearing women live in areas of the Americas that are suitable for Zika occurrence. To improve on that estimate, which did not take into account the protective effects of herd immunity, we developed a new approach that combines classic results from epidemiological theory with seroprevalence data and highly spatially resolved data about drivers of transmission to make location-specific projections of epidemic attack rates. Our results suggest that 1.65 (1.45-2.06) million childbearing women and 93.4 (81.6-117.1) million people in total could become infected before the first wave of the epidemic concludes. Based on current estimates of rates of adverse fetal outcomes among infected women 2,4,5 , these results suggest that tens of thousands of pregnancies could be negatively impacted by the first wave of the epidemic. These projections constitute a revised upper limit of populations at risk in the current Zika epidemic, and our approach offers a new way to make rapid assessments of the threat posed by emerging infectious diseases more generally.On 1 February 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) designated the ongoing Zika virus epidemic in the Americas as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), defined as an 'extraordinary event' that 'potentially require[s] a coordinated international response' 6 . This declaration acknowledges the high potential for Zika to establish across the Americas given that its dominant vector, the Aedes aegypti mosquito, is endophilic and occupies an exceptionally broad geographical range 7 . Concern underlying this rare WHO declaration also stems from an association between Zika virus infection in pregnant women and a range of adverse fetal outcomes 2 , most notably congenital microcephaly 1 . As of 30 June 2016, there were 1,674 confirmed cases of microcephaly associated with Zika virus infection in five countries 8 , and there is widespread concern that these numbers could increase further as the virus continues to spread across the Americas 9 .A number of uncertainties surround the future of the Zika epidemic in the Americas, particularly questions about how many women may be at risk of having children with congenital microcephaly and other adverse outcomes associated with Zika virus infection 10 . Of women who become infected with Zika virus during a vulnerable stage of their pregnancy, evidence is emerging that 1-13% may go on to develop congenital microcephaly 2,4,5 .However, the number of women who become infected with Zika virus during that timeframe is difficult to ascertain. One recent study 3 estimat...

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confidence: 99%

Model-based projections of Zika virus infections in childbearing women in the Americas

et al. 2016

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“…Use of GIS-based epidemiological maps allow to integrate preventive and control strategies, as well as public health policies, for joint control of this vector-borne disease in this and other areas of the country [4][5][6][7][8][9][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24]. As other arboviruses are co-circulating (dengue, CHIKV and ZIKV), maps of them as well for co-infections will be also needed [16,17].…”

Section: -2016mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this setting use of GIS would be also at national and subnational levels to provide models about the influence and suitability of Zika given environmental and social factors [8,18]. Recent evidences indicated that 2015 El Niño caused extreme climatic conditions in Northeastern South America during winter and spring in the southern hemisphere, that might have contributed to the rapid dispersal of Zika virus in Brazil and other countries in the region, possibly including Colombia [19], as has been evidenced for dengue in different regions of this country [20,21].…”

Section: -2016mentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping Zika virus disease incidence in Valle del Cauca

et al. 2016

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used was Kosmo Desktop 3.0RC1 ® . Three thematic incidence rate maps were developed. Results Up to April 2, 2016, 9,825 cases of ZIKV were reported (15.15 % of the country cases). The burden of ZIKV infection has been concentrated in the North of the department. Valle del Cauca borders with other departments with incidence of ZIKV infection, such as Quindío (173 cases) and Risaralda (687 cases). Eleven municipalities of Valle del Cauca had cases in the range between 250 and 499 cases/100,000, all in the North and East of the department. Cali, the capital concentrates more than a third of the reported cases of ZIKV in Valle del Cauca. Conclusions Use of GIS-based epidemiological maps allows to guide decision-making for prevention and control of diseases that constitute significant public health problems in the region and the country, such as exemplified by the emergence of ZIKV infection, particularly in departments such as Valle del Cauca with a high disease incidence.

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“…The model has been calibrated by using data from French Polynesia and the observed epidemic peak in Colombia (± 1 wk), as reported by Colombia's National Institute of Health (38); further research is needed to provide ZIKV-specific parameter estimates and more accurate local calibrations. Mosquito presence/absence maps are available from published data but have limitations as detailed in the literature (32,34,58). Sexual and other modes of transmission are not incorporated in the model.…”

Section: Projected Zikv Infections In Childbearing Women and Microcepmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…30). Furthermore, although mathematical and computational models have tackled the characterization of the transmissibility and potential burden of ZIKV (31)(32)(33)(34)(35), little is known about the global spread of the virus in 2014 and 2015, before the WHO's alert in early 2016.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Zhang

Sun

Chinazzi

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

296

321

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We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics. Using a data-driven stochastic and spatial epidemic model, we present numerical results providing insight into the first introduction in the region and the epidemic dynamics across the Americas. We use the model to analyze the spatiotemporal spread and magnitude of the epidemic in the Americas through to February 2017, accounting for seasonal environmental factors and detailed population data. We also provide projections of the number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester, along with estimates for the number of microcephaly cases per country using three different levels of risk based on empirical retrospective studies (36, 37). ResultsIntroduction of ZIKV to the Americas. We identify 12 major transportation hubs in areas related to major events held in Brazil,

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Mapping global environmental suitability for Zika virus

Cited by 329 publications

References 105 publications

Model-based projections of Zika virus infections in childbearing women in the Americas

Model-based projections of Zika virus infections in childbearing women in the Americas

Mapping Zika virus disease incidence in Valle del Cauca

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

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