Mapping global risk levels of Bemisia tabaci in areas of suitability for open field tomato cultivation under current and future climates

Abstract

The whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, is a major threat to tomato Solanum lycopersicum and ranks as one of the world’s 100 most invasive pests. This is the first study of B. tabaci (Biotype B and Q) global distribution, focusing on risk levels of this invasive pest, in areas projected to be suitable for open field S. lycopersicum cultivation under climate change. This study aims to identify levels of risk of invasive B. tabaci for areas of suitability for open field S. lycopersicum cultivation for the present, 2050 and 2070 using MaxEnt and the Global Climate Model, HadGEM2_ES under RCP45. Our results show that 5% of areas optimal for open field S. lycopersicum cultivation are currently at high risk of B. tabaci. Among the optimal areas for S. lycopersicum, the projections for 2050 compared to the current time showed an extension of 180% in areas under high risk, and a shortening of 67 and 27% in areas under medium and low risk of B. tabaci, respectively, while projections for 2070 showed an extension of 164, and a shortening of 49 and 64% under high, medium and low risk, respectively. The basis of these projections is that predicted temperature increases could affect the pest, which has great adaptability to different climate conditions, but could also impose limitations on the growth of S. lycopersicum. These results may be used in designing strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of B. tabaci for open-field tomato crops, and assist the implementation of pest management programs.

Impacts of climate change on tomato, a notorious pest and its natural enemy: small scale agriculture at higher risk

“…Saadi et al (2015) modelled CC impacts on tomato yield in the Mediterranean under the A1B scenario in 2050 and showed no major impacts, in accordance with the current work. Da Silva et al (2017b) and Ramos et al (2018) used projections for a warmer world than the GCM/SERS used in the current study and reported both restrictions and expansions in land suitable for tomato cultivation. The choice of the modelling platform, GCM and CC scenario/RCP can significantly influence predictions (Meynard et al 2013, Shabani et al 2016.…”

“…While some studies have included both crops and pests (e.g. Berzitis et al 2014, Ponti et al 2014, Ramirez-Cabral et al 2018, Ramos et al 2018, Santana et al 2018, none has looked at a crop-pest-natural enemy system. We provide for the first time an assessment of CC impacts on the climatic suitability of agricultural areas for a vegetablepest-natural enemy combination of global importance: Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.), the twospotted spider mite (Tetranychus urticae (Koch)) and its key natural enemy, the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis Athias-Henriot.…”

“…In the EU, one of the most important tomato producers, more than 85% of tomatoes are produced outdoors, mainly in Mediterranean Member States (Eurostat 2019). Modelling of worst-case CC scenaria revealed substantial restrictions of suitable areas for cultivation of the crop (da Silva et al 2017b, Ramos et al 2018). The Paris agreement created substantial interest in assessing the impacts of a 1.5°C warming in different productive sectors (Hoegh-Guldberg et al in press), but currently no information exists for tomato.…”

Assessing the impact of climate change on the worldwide distribution of Dalbulus maidis (DeLong) using MaxEnt

“…For the future projections for 2050 and 2070, the global climate models (GCMs) MIROC5, HadGEM2‐AO and HadGEM2‐ES under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used for both species. Theses GCMs have been used widely to assess the spatial distributions of many species based on climate change, ecosystems and other long timescale components of the earth, including the simulations of the currently available RCPs . These models were three of the models that were used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the associated cycle of the fifth phase of the CMIP5 (http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/).…”

“…Theses GCMs have been used widely to assess the spatial distributions of many species based on climate change, ecosystems and other long timescale components of the earth, including the simulations of the currently available RCPs. [39][40][41] These models were three of the models that were used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the associated cycle of the fifth phase of the CMIP5 (http://www.ipcc.ch/ report/ar5/wg1/). 42 These models take into account various factors, which includes greenhouse gas emissions, aerosols, solar irradiance, ozone, and others.…”