Abstract:This article investigates the electorally expressed ideology of Brazilian voters via ecological analysis at the municipal level between 1994 and 2018. Our purpose is to analyze the main conditioners of aggregated patterns of ideology measured at a high spatial resolution. We test four major explanations for the variation in ideology at the municipal level: the effect of incumbent alignments, social modernization, political pluralism, and social inclusion. We ind that although the Brazilian electorate as a whol… Show more
“…); the second concerns the representative's perception about all the other political parties (Where would you position each political party?). Taking into account that each party has an objective ideological position, Zucco, Power, and coauthors estimate the parties' ideological positions in a number of papers (Gatto and Power ; Power and Rodrigues‐Silveira ; Power and Zucco ; Zucco , ; Zucco, Batista, and Power ; Zucco and Lauderdale ; Zucco and Power ). Based on their work, what can we say about political polarization in Brazil since the 1990s?…”
Section: Polarized Politics Institutions and Policy Outcomes In Brazilmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Ideological Distance: PSDB and PT, 1994‐2018 Source : Brazilian Legislative Survey (BLS) (Power and Rodrigues‐Silveira ).…”
Section: Polarized Politics Institutions and Policy Outcomes In Brazilmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We attempt to answer these questions by analyzing the country's political landscape, focusing on one specific policy area. Regardless of the widespread misuse of the term “polarization,” the literature indicates a reduction in the level of elite political polarization over time when examining legislative roll‐call votes and elite surveys (Power and Rodrigues‐Silveira ; Power and Zucco ; Zucco and Power ). It could be claimed that this fact was responsible for policy continuity and stability on a broad array of topics.…”
What can we infer about the effect of polarized politics on the Brazilian policy-making process?We attempt to answer this question by analyzing the country's political landscape and focusing on one specific policy issue concerning agrarian policies, an area that is exposed to much ideological conflict for both the left and right wing. We show how the mechanism has worked in this case to mitigate the polarization effects. Two political groups monopolized national elections over the past two decades sharing very different positions concerning ideological preferences. In this article, we recognize polarization between the two leading parties, but argue that the Brazilian political system features the dynamics of coalitional presidentialism that mitigates party preferences. We analyze funding data for small farmers and rural settlements for the period 1995-2016, arriving at the conclusion that the agrarian policy of the competing parties resembled one another, despite political polarization.
“…); the second concerns the representative's perception about all the other political parties (Where would you position each political party?). Taking into account that each party has an objective ideological position, Zucco, Power, and coauthors estimate the parties' ideological positions in a number of papers (Gatto and Power ; Power and Rodrigues‐Silveira ; Power and Zucco ; Zucco , ; Zucco, Batista, and Power ; Zucco and Lauderdale ; Zucco and Power ). Based on their work, what can we say about political polarization in Brazil since the 1990s?…”
Section: Polarized Politics Institutions and Policy Outcomes In Brazilmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Ideological Distance: PSDB and PT, 1994‐2018 Source : Brazilian Legislative Survey (BLS) (Power and Rodrigues‐Silveira ).…”
Section: Polarized Politics Institutions and Policy Outcomes In Brazilmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We attempt to answer these questions by analyzing the country's political landscape, focusing on one specific policy area. Regardless of the widespread misuse of the term “polarization,” the literature indicates a reduction in the level of elite political polarization over time when examining legislative roll‐call votes and elite surveys (Power and Rodrigues‐Silveira ; Power and Zucco ; Zucco and Power ). It could be claimed that this fact was responsible for policy continuity and stability on a broad array of topics.…”
What can we infer about the effect of polarized politics on the Brazilian policy-making process?We attempt to answer this question by analyzing the country's political landscape and focusing on one specific policy issue concerning agrarian policies, an area that is exposed to much ideological conflict for both the left and right wing. We show how the mechanism has worked in this case to mitigate the polarization effects. Two political groups monopolized national elections over the past two decades sharing very different positions concerning ideological preferences. In this article, we recognize polarization between the two leading parties, but argue that the Brazilian political system features the dynamics of coalitional presidentialism that mitigates party preferences. We analyze funding data for small farmers and rural settlements for the period 1995-2016, arriving at the conclusion that the agrarian policy of the competing parties resembled one another, despite political polarization.
“…The study reported in [Power and Rodrigues-Silveira 2019] presents an ecological analysis of Brazilian elections at the municipal level from 1995 to 2018. They look for ideological alignments over space and time and try to identify four possible explanations regarding the outcomes of the elections, which were: the effect of incumbent alignments, social modernization, political pluralism, and social inclusion.…”
Since 1989, the first year of the democratic presidential election after a long period of a dictatorship regime, Brazil conducted eight presidential elections. This period was marked by short and long-term shifts of power and two impeachment processes. Such instability is a case of study in electoral studies, e.g., the study of the population voting behavior. Understanding patterns in the population behavior can give us insight into factors and influences that affect the quality of democratic political decisions. In light of this, our paper focuses on analyzing the Brazilian presidential election voting behavior across the years and the Brazilian territory. Following a data science pipeline, we divided the analysis process into five steps: (i) data selection; (ii) data preprocessing; (iii) identification of spatial patterns, in which we seek to understand the role of space in the election results using spatial autocorrelation techniques; (iv) identification of temporal patterns, where we investigate similar trends of votes over the years using a hierarchical clustering method; and (v) evaluation of the results. It is noteworthy that the data in this work represents the election results at the municipal level, from 1994 to 2018, of the two most relevant parties of this period: the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and the Workers’ Party (PT). Through the results obtained, we found the existence of spatial dependence in every electoral year investigated. Moreover, despite the changes in the political-economic context over the years, neighboring cities seem to present similar voting behavior trends.
“…In particular, the Brazilian party distribution in the last two elections had a sharp veer to the right on the 2016 municipal elections and the 2018 national elections. On those occasions, PT, the more massive left party in Brazil, lost more than half of its presence in municipalities (Power and Rodrigues-Silveira (2019)).…”
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