Mapping Impacts of Climate Change on the Distributions of Two Endemic Tree Species under Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios (SSP)

HamadAmin, Barham A.; Khwarahm, Nabaz R.

doi:10.3390/su15065469

Cited by 17 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 75 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…A higher AUC value closer to 1 indicates a more accurate model. The forecast results were divided into different intervals based on the AUC values, ranging from excellent (0.9–1.0) to fail (0.5–0.6) [ 22 , 46 ]. After running the model, a suitability index was obtained, representing the range of potentially suitable distribution areas for G. orchidis .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Historical, Current, and Future Configuration of Tibetan Medicinal Herb Gymnadenia orchidis Based on the Optimized MaxEnt in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Li,

Zhang,

Yang

et al. 2024

Plants

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change plays a pivotal role in shaping the shifting patterns of plant distribution, and gaining insights into how medicinal plants in the plateau region adapt to climate change will be instrumental in safeguarding the rich biodiversity of the highlands. Gymnosia orchidis Lindl. (G. orchidis) is a valuable Tibetan medicinal resource with significant medicinal, ecological, and economic value. However, the growth of G. orchidis is severely constrained by stringent natural conditions, leading to a drastic decline in its resources. Therefore, it is crucial to study the suitable habitat areas of G. orchidis to facilitate future artificial cultivation and maintain ecological balance. In this study, we investigated the suitable zones of G. orchidis based on 79 occurrence points in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) and 23 major environmental variables, including climate, topography, and soil type. We employed the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate and predict the spatial distribution and configuration changes in G. orchidis during different time periods, including the last interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), the present, and future scenarios (2041–2060 and 2061–2080) under three different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Our results indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12, 613–2466 mm) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11, −5.8–8.5 °C) were the primary factors influencing the suitable habitat of G. orchidis, with a cumulative contribution of 78.5%. The precipitation and temperature during the driest season had the most significant overall impact. Under current climate conditions, the suitable areas of G. orchidis covered approximately 63.72 × 104/km2, encompassing Yunnan, Gansu, Sichuan, and parts of Xizang provinces, with the highest suitability observed in the Hengduan, Yunlin, and Himalayan mountain regions. In the past, the suitable area of G. orchidis experienced significant changes during the Mid-Holocene, including variations in the total area and centroid migration direction. In future scenarios, the suitable habitat of G. orchidis is projected to expand significantly under SSP370 (30.33–46.19%), followed by SSP585 (1.41–22.3%), while contraction is expected under SSP126. Moreover, the centroids of suitable areas exhibited multidirectional movement, with the most extensive displacement observed under SSP585 (100.38 km2). This study provides a theoretical foundation for the conservation of biodiversity and endangered medicinal plants in the QTP.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Historical, Current, and Future Configuration of Tibetan Medicinal Herb Gymnadenia orchidis Based on the Optimized MaxEnt in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Li,

Zhang,

Yang

et al. 2024

Plants

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A higher AUC value closer to 1 indicates a more accurate model. The forecast results were divided into different intervals based on the AUC values, ranging from excellent (0.9-1.0) to fail (0.5-0.6) (HamadAmin et al 2023;Huang and Ma 2020).…”

Section: Construction Optimization and Evaluation Of Maxentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of historical, current and future configuration of Gymnadenia orchidis 1 based on the optimized MaxEnt in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

LI,

Zhang,

Wang

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Gymnosia orchidis (G. orchidis) is a valuable Tibetan medicinal resource with significant medicinal, ecological, and economic value. However, the growth of G. orchidis is severely constrained by stringent natural conditions, leading to a drastic decline in its resources. Therefore, it is crucial to study the suitable habitat areas of G. orchidis to facilitate future artificial cultivation and maintain ecological balance. In this study, we investigated the suitable zones of G. orchidis based on 79 occurrence points in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and 23 major environmental variables, including climate, topography, and soil type. We employed the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate and predict the spatial distribution and configuration changes of G. orchidis during different time periods, including the last inter-glacial (LIG), the last glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), the present, and future scenarios (2041—2060 and 2061—2080) under three different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Our results indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12, 613—2466 mm) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11, -5.8—8.5 °C) were the primary factors influencing the suitable habitat of G. orchidis, with a cumulative contribution of 78.5%. The precipitation and temperature during the driest season had the most significant overall impact. Under current climate conditions, the suitable areas of G. orchidis covered approximately 63.72×104/km², encompassing Yunnan, Gansu, Sichuan, and parts of Xizang provinces, with the highest suitability observed in the Hengduan, Yunlin, and Himalayan mountain regions. In the past, the suitable area of G. orchidis experienced significant changes during the Mid-Holocene, including variations in total area and centroid migration direction. In future scenarios, the suitable habitat of G. orchidis is projected to expand significantly under SSP370 (30.33%—46.19%), followed by SSP585 (1.41%—22.3%), while contraction is expected under SSP126. Moreover, the centroids of suitable areas exhibited multidirectional movement, with the most extensive displacement observed under SSP585 (100.38 km²). This research provides valuable insights for guiding the selection of introduced species, artificial cultivation, and resource conservation in the future, while also offering theoretical support for the protection of endangered species.

show abstract

“…(i) unsuitable (0.0-0.20); (ii) low suitable (0.20-0.33); medium suitable (0.33-0.43); and high suitable (0.43-0.89) [38]. To perform these categorizations, spatial analysis tools within the ArcGIS 10.3 platform were utilized [38,39]. The unsuitable class signifies areas with the lowest probability of encountering the victor ticks and, hence, CCHF.…”

Section: Model Buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Hyalomma ssp., Vector Ticks of Crimean–Congo Haemorrhagic Fever in Iraq

Khwarahm

2023

Sustainability

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Crimean–Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) typically spreads through ticks and is categorized as a viral hemorrhagic fever. CCHF is a fatal endemic disease in Iraq, and it has been reported sporadically since its first report in 1979. Recent outbreaks during 2021–2023 and their fatal consequences captured the interest of this study. CCHF is a tick-borne disease that represents a major challenge to the public health, social, and economic sectors. The geographical distribution of CCHF is closely linked with Hyalomma vector tick distribution. Therefore, predicting and mapping the spatial distribution of the disease vector in relation to relevant environmental factors provides invaluable information for establishing an early warning system based on which preventive measures can be taken to minimize the spread and, hence, the fatal consequences of CCHF. To achieve this, this study incorporates geospatial techniques and maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) to assess the habitat suitability of the Hyalomma vector and to identify the key environmental drivers contributing to its spatial distribution in Iraq. Utilizing the area under the ROC curve (AUC) as the performance metric, the model evaluation yielded successful results in predicting habitat suitability for Hyalomma vector ticks in Iraq. The AUC attained an average score of 0.885 with a regularization multiplier (β) set at 1. The Hyalomma ticks’ suitable habitat distribution within the study area covers a fraction of the total land, at approximately 51% (225,665 km2) of the entire 441,724 km2 region. Among these suitable areas, 41.57% (183,631 km2) were classified as lowly suitable, 8.61% (38,039 km2) as moderately suitable, and 0.9% (3994 km2) as highly suitable. Several factors have significantly influenced Hyalomma vector tick distribution in Iraq. These include land cover (accounting for 50.8%), elevation (contributing 30.4%), NDVI (5.7%), temperature seasonality (4.7%), precipitation seasonality (3.3%), sheep density (2.3%), goat density (2.2%), and the mean diurnal range (0.5%). The findings of this study could have significant implications for establishing a strategic early warning system and taking preventive measures beforehand to minimize and control Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever in Iraq and similar ecoregions in the Middle East. As a primary precaution, this study recommends focusing on highly suitable areas (3994 km2) in the southern part of Iraq for management and preventive actions.

show abstract

Mapping Impacts of Climate Change on the Distributions of Two Endemic Tree Species under Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios (SSP)

Cited by 17 publications

References 75 publications

Prediction of Historical, Current, and Future Configuration of Tibetan Medicinal Herb Gymnadenia orchidis Based on the Optimized MaxEnt in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Prediction of Historical, Current, and Future Configuration of Tibetan Medicinal Herb Gymnadenia orchidis Based on the Optimized MaxEnt in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Prediction of historical, current and future configuration of Gymnadenia orchidis 1 based on the optimized MaxEnt in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Hyalomma ssp., Vector Ticks of Crimean–Congo Haemorrhagic Fever in Iraq

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About