Abstract. The massive Sargassum algae beachings observed over the past decade are a
new natural hazard currently impacting the island states of the Caribbean
region (human health, environmental damages, and economic losses). This
study aims to improve the prediction of the surface current dynamic leading
to beachings in the Lesser Antilles using clustering analysis methods. The
input surface currents were derived from the Mercator model and the Hybrid
Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) outputs in which we integrated the windage
effect. Past daily observations of Sargassum beaching on Guadeloupe coasts and
satellite-based Sargassum offshore abundance were also integrated. Four
representative current regimes were identified for both Mercator and HYCOM
data. The analysis of the current sequences leading to beachings showed that
the recurrence of two current regimes is related to the beaching peaks
respectively observed in March and August. The performance score of the
predictive model showed that the HYCOM data seem more suitable to assess
coastal Sargassum hazard in the Lesser Antilles. For 1 year of tests (i.e., 2021),
the decision tree accuracy respectively reached 70.1 % and 58.2 % for
HYCOM and Mercator with a temporal uncertainty range ±3 d around the
forecast date. The present clustering analysis predictive system, requiring
lower computational resources compared to conventional forecast models, would
help improve this risk management in the islands of the region.