Mapping potential implications of temporary COVID‐19 export bans for the food supply in importing countries using precrisis trade flows

Koppenberg, Maximilian; Bozzola, Martina; Hirsch, Stefan

doi:10.1002/agr.21684

Cited by 40 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…We agree with Koppenberg et al (2021), expecting that fulfilling of the export potential of agricultural production during 2020-2021 will significantly transform in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular due to the impact of export bans imposed by some countries. Thus, the global food system will change significantly due to: reduced access to human resources (reduction of seasonal labour due to travel restrictions; staff morbidity and restrictions in public life); accumulation of stocks of agricultural products due to food insecurity, which is associated with the disruption of supply chains around the world; reducing demand for food due to reduced tourist flows; forced temporary shutdown of the economy, which led to a decrease in economic activity, a sharp rise in unemployment and, consequently, to a decrease in income, which may have an unpredictable impact on demand for agricultural products.…”

Section: Fig 8 Impact Of Wheat Cultivation Area On the Volume Of Its ...supporting

confidence: 80%

Analysis of export of agricultural products in the context of the global food crisis

Al-Ababneh

Osmonova

Dumanska

et al. 2021

Agric. resour. econ.

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Purpose. The purpose of this article is to study the nature, main trends and problematic aspects of realization of the export potential of agricultural production in the countries of South America, OECD, North America and Europe in the context of aggravating food crisis. Methodology / approach. Theoretical and empirical methods of cognition are used in their dialectical combination. The main methods used in this study are statistical analysis, index, graphical and analytical methods, methods for estimating structural dynamic shifts, comparisons and monographic method. The study also involved general methods of economic research, in particular: theoretical generalization and comparison, induction and deduction are used in revealing the content of the export potential of agricultural production, drawing conclusions; the current condition and tendencies of development of export of agricultural products is estimated by means of synthesis and the economic analysis; graphic, economic, statistical and interstate comparisons are used to analyse the export of agricultural products; statistical methods (grouping) are applied to assess the domestic and external export potential of agricultural products in the regional context. The influence of external and domestic export potential on wheat exports is studied by regression analysis. Results. The need to ensure food security by countries around the world urges the importance of the agricultural sector as a catalyst for economic development, sources of foreign exchange earnings, investment direction, etc. The study of agricultural specialization led to the conclusion that wheat and sugar are goods with the highest export potential. It is substantiated that the countries of South America, OECD, North America and Europe have the highest level of fulfilment of export potential of agricultural production, and African countries are import-dependent. Besides, the low export orientation of Africa and Asia due to the peculiarities of their natural and climatic conditions is established based on the assessment of export-import operations in the regional context. The internal and external export potential of each of the regions is analysed. The direct correlation between the exports volume and area of land used for wheat cultivation, as well as with its yield, was established through the correlation and regression analysis. Originality / scientific novelty. The scientific novelty of the results of the study is that the authors were the first who carried out a comprehensive analysis of the potential capacity and ability to increase exports of agricultural products in the world and by product groups. The essence and features of economic representation of export potential of agricultural products at the international and national levels are determined. The main factors influencing the development of the export potential of agricultural products in the regional context are outlined and their influence is investigated by carrying out the regression analysis. The study of domestic and foreign export potential by regions of the world is further developed. Practical value / implications. The analysis of the internal and external export potential of agricultural production was carried out in the regional context, which resulted in the identification of the main recommendations for increasing their level in order to enhance the development of the agro-industrial sector of the economy.

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Section: Fig 8 Impact Of Wheat Cultivation Area On the Volume Of Its ...supporting

confidence: 80%

Analysis of export of agricultural products in the context of the global food crisis

Al-Ababneh

Osmonova

Dumanska

et al. 2021

Agric. resour. econ.

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“…Various food trade and fiscal policies imposed to reduce the impact of COVID-19 could have also affected food markets in several ways. For instance, since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, more than 20 countries around the globe have imposed export bans on several essential agri-food products [ 41 ]. This trade policy restriction may have increased food prices in the world market [ 42 ], increased the risk of food insecurity in many low- and middle-income countries [ 43 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In sum, COVID-19 affected both supply and demand of food markets, resulting in higher food prices, leading to food insecurity and poverty in many developing and emerging countries. As mentioned above, various studies have investigated economy-wide impacts of COVID-19 induced turmoil [ 45 , 46 ], effects on labor markets [ 23 , 33 , 47 , 48 ], household income and food security [ 14 , 26 , 28 , 36 , 38 , 49 – 52 ], and trade flows [ 41 , 53 ]. However, the literature on price effects of the COVID-19 pandemic is minimal.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food prices: Evidence from storable and perishable commodities in India

2022

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The supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 outbreak have led to changes in food prices globally. The impact of COVID-19 on the price of essential and perishable food items in developing and emerging economies has been lacking. Using a recent phone survey by the World Bank, this study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prices of the three essential food items in India. The results indicate that price of basic food items such as atta (wheat flour) and rice increased significantly during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. In contrast, during the same period, the price of onions declined significantly. The findings may suggest panic-buying, hoarding, and storability of food items. The results further reveal that remittance income and cash transfers from the government negatively affected commodity prices. Thus, this study’s findings suggest that families may have shifted the demand away from essential foods during the pandemic.

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“…However, in the long run, countermeasures such as blockades and export bans are not sustainable. Many scholars emphasized that the restrictive trade system has compromised the supply and accessibility of food [25]. Restrictions should be gradually relaxed as the pandemic spreads.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Meanwhile, short-term trade protectionist measures have also adversely affected the food security of import-dependent countries and disrupted the global supply chain [25]. Although international organizations, governments and trade economists have called for avoiding trade protectionist measures to prevent food prices from rising, some countries have issued bans on agricultural exports.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Food Security under COVID-19: Comparison and Enlightenment of Policy Responses in Different Countries

Jiang

Chen

Wang

2021

Foods

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(1) Background: COVID-19 has exacerbated global food security risks, and the global food supply chain, especially in developing countries, has become more vulnerable. (2) Methods: In this paper, we discussed the current security of global food, response measures, and potential impacts, and analyzed the characteristics and evolution of food security policies in four representative countries: China, Italy, Malawi, Argentina. (3) Results: The results showed that most countries give priority to ensuring food access. Most underdeveloped countries adopt humanitarian intervention measures such as food distribution and transfer payments, while developed countries tend to implement development intervention policies such as supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises and guaranteeing employment. (4) Conclusions: Despite the ample global supply, developing countries still face long-term food security risks, highlighting the importance of strengthening global food security governance and risk management. Finally, a food security risk response policy framework was built to provide suggestions for effectively handling COVID-19 and similar public health emergencies in the future.

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Mapping potential implications of temporary COVID‐19 export bans for the food supply in importing countries using precrisis trade flows

Cited by 40 publications

References 27 publications

Analysis of export of agricultural products in the context of the global food crisis

Analysis of export of agricultural products in the context of the global food crisis

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food prices: Evidence from storable and perishable commodities in India

Global Food Security under COVID-19: Comparison and Enlightenment of Policy Responses in Different Countries

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