Mapping the Distribution of Detected Cases in the Region with a Low Tuberculosis Incidence Rate

Abstract

Introduction: A decrease in the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in the regions of the Russian Federation is accompanied by spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of detected TB cases in their municipal districts, which requires optimization of planning annual periodic health examinations aimed at early detection of TB in the population. Objective: To establish spatial distribution of detected tuberculosis cases in the municipal districts of the Kaluga Region. Materials and methods: We used data from Rosstat report forms Nos. 8 and 30 for 2019–2023, QGIS 3.36.1, and Statistica software to map the spatial distribution of detected TB cases. The correlation coefficient (r) and the Fisher’s exact test were used for the analysis. The differences were regarded as statistically significant at p < 0.05. Results: We identified the Northern and the Southern Clusters comprising 459 detected TB cases in the Kaluga Region, the former including 75 % of the patients. The density of TB cases in the Northern Cluster per square kilometer was 4 times higher than in the Southern Cluster. Tuberculosis case detection rates in the Northern Cluster were 71.7 %, 78.8 %, and 79 % in the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, which indicated a higher risk of TB spread among the population living in this territory. Conclusion: The cluster analysis of spatial distribution of newly detected TB cases across municipal districts of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation allows timely measures to be taken to optimize scheduling of annual tuberculosis screening among the population.