15The distribution of fitness effects (DFE) defines how new mutations spread through an 16 evolving population. The ratio of non-synonymous to synonymous mutations (dN/dS) has 17 become a popular method to detect selection in somatic cells, however the link, in somatic 18 evolution, between dN/dS values and fitness coefficients is missing. Here we present a 19 quantitative model of somatic evolutionary dynamics that yields the selective coefficients 20 from individual driver mutations from dN/dS estimates, and then measure the DFE for 21 somatic mutant clones in ostensibly normal oesophagus and skin. We reveal a broad 22 distribution of fitness effects, with the largest fitness increases found for TP53 and NOTCH1 23 mutants (proliferative bias 1-5%). Accurate measurement of the per-gene DFE in cancer 24 evolution is precluded by the quality of currently available sequencing data. This study 25provides the theoretical link between dN/dS values and selective coefficients in somatic 26 evolution, and reveals the DFE for mutations in human tissues. 27 28 29Introduction 30 31One of the principal goals of large-scale somatic genome sequencing is to uncover genetic loci 32 under positive selection, so-called "driver" genes, that lead to clonal expansions. 33Enumeration of the selective advantage of each driver mutation enables prediction of future 34 evolutionary dynamics 1 . In evolutionary biology, the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) is a 35 fundamental entity that describes the selective consequences of a (large) number of 36 individual mutations of an ancestral genome 2 . In somatic evolution, particularly cancer 37 genomes, we have an extensive knowledge of the catalogue of recurrent, and likely positively 38 selected, somatic mutations 3 , but the fitness changes associated with each mutation remain 39 largely unquantified. 40 41Extensive experimental effort is ongoing to determine the fitness effects of mutations. Most 42 prominently is lineage tracing of mutations in mouse models 4,5 , but these methods are not 43 sufficiently high-throughput to produce the DFE for all somatic mutations. Other studies have 44 estimated the selective coefficient of somatic mutations by measuring the frequency of such 45 mutations over time in the same individual using longitudinal sampling 6,7 however this 46 method is broadly limited to somatic evolution in the blood (where it is feasible to take 47