Mapping the Spread of Mounted Warfare

Turchin, Peter; Currie, Thomas E.; Turner, Edward

doi:10.21237/c7clio7233509

Cited by 11 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The diffusion of horse cavalry takes 500 years to reach east Asia, arriving in 500 BCE (Turchin, 2016b). However, at that time the low population of the relatively small agrarian states there allows the nomadic tribes to pester them first for several hundred years, similar to the sequence in the Near East (not shown), before the relatively high confederation population trigger is surpassed in roughly 200 BCE, about the time of the historic Han/Xiongnu mirror states.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…Initially their ability to demand ('extort') better terms with these states through military force was negligible. However, beginning around 1000 BCE, certain tribes in the Pontic-Caspian region developed sophisticated horse cavalry tactics and related technology, notably the saddle and powerful compound bow (see Turchin, 2016b for data on horse cavalry spread throughout Eurasia). Tribes armed with these advantages began raiding and extorting the relatively wealthy, nearby agrarian states.…”

Section: Nomadic Tribes and Confederationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At some point, depending on the simulation specification, horse cavalry is invented by the tribes located within a particular longitudinal band in a particular year; nominally simulations assume the invention occurs in the Pontic-Caspian area (roughly 45°E) in 1000 BCE. Horse cavalry then spreads to additional tribes as the longitudinal band widens at a rate such that all tribes have acquired horse cavalry around 500 years later (Turchin, 2016b), implying a relatively slow spread and adoption rate of around 13 km/year. Acquisition of horse cavalry permits a nomadic tribe to extort any agrarian states exposing 10% of their territory within a certain agricultural 'strike zone' distance from the steppe.…”

Section: Nomadic Tribes and Confederationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here I present an alternative, dynamic, quantitative model that substantially retrodicts the increasing size and scale of large-scale (> 200 thousand km 2 ) polities in the Old World, including their number, duration, location, spread rate, occupied area, and population size. The model significantly expands Bennett's 2016 demographic-structural agrarian state model to include steppe nomadic confederations and a simple implementation of Turchin's autocatalytic mechanism to investigate the consequences of increasing military efficiency, state size, and confederation formation on agrarian states after the invention and subsequent spread of nomadic horse cavalry in 1000 BCE from the Pontic-Caspian region (Turchin, 2016b). Analyzing different 'counter-factual histories' (see Scheidel, 2019 for a discussion of counter-factual reasoning in historical analysis) generated by varying aspects of the model (i.e., disabling or trying various alternative mechanisms, varying critical scale parameters, changing exogenous technology boundary conditions) yields quantitative insights into various key historical events while revealing the model's strengths and shortcomings.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Retrodicting the Rise, Spread, and Fall of Large-scale States in the Old World

Bennett¹

2020

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Understanding the rise, spread, and fall of large-scale states in the ancient world has occupied thinkers for millennia. However, no comprehensive mechanistic model based on their insights has emerged, leaving it difficult to evaluate empirically or quantitatively the different explanations offered. Here I present a spatially- and temporally-resolved agent-based model of large-scale (>200 thousand km2) agrarian states and steppe nomadic confederations in Afro-Eurasia between the middle Bronze and the end of the Medieval era (1500 BCE - 1500 CE). The model tracks the spread of agrarian states as they expand, conquer the territory of other states or are themselves conquered, depending on their relative modeled population size and military efficiency. To accurately retrodict the historical record, several key regional technological advances in state military and agricultural efficiencies are identified. Modifying the location, scale, and timing of these innovations allows quantitative investigation of historically-plausible alternative trajectories of state growth, spread, and fragmentation, while demonstrating the operation and limits of the model. In particular, under nominal assumptions, the historically rapid increase of agrarian state sizes, first in southwest Asia after 600 CE and then in east Asia after 200 BCE, is accounted for by modeling increasing military efficiency improvements in response to intense extortion pressure from nomadic tribes and subsequent ‘mirror’ confederations following the invention and slow diffusion of horse cavalry tactics across the steppe after 1000 BCE. However, in spite of various technological advances, throughout the period the modeled creation and spread of new agrarian states is a fundamental consequence of state collapse and internal civil wars triggered by rising 'demographic-structural' pressures that occur when territorial growth is checked yet (elite) population growth continues. Together the model's underlying mechanisms substantially account for the number of states, their duration, location, spread rate, overall occupied area, and population size for three millennia.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 83%

Section: Nomadic Tribes and Confederationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Nomadic Tribes and Confederationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Retrodicting the Rise, Spread, and Fall of Large-scale States in the Old World

Bennett¹

2020

Preprint

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“…We single out this variable as a potential predictor because several hypotheses explaining the rise of moralizing 'world' religions during the Axial Age (c.800-200 BCE) identify as the major driving force the new forms of horse-based warfare, which emerged among societies in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe and then spread to the rest of Eurasia (and, ultimately, the whole world) (Jaspers 1953, Turchin 2006, Bellah 2011. The data on the spread of mounted warfare are from (Turchin, Currie, and Turner 2016). Resource Scarcity vs.…”

Section: Predictor Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explaining the Rise of Moralizing Religions: A test of competing hypotheses using the Seshat Databank

Turchin¹,

Whitehouse²,

Larson³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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The causes, consequences, and timing of the rise of moralizing religions in world history have been the focus of intense debate. Progress has been limited by the availability of quantitative data to test competing theories, by divergent ideas regarding both predictor and outcomes variables, and by differences of opinion over methodology. To address all these problems, we utilize Seshat: Global History Databank, a vast storehouse of information designed to test theories concerning the drivers of social complexity in world history. In addition to the Big Gods hypothesis, which proposes that moralizing religion contributed to the success of increasingly large-scale complex societies, we consider the role of warfare, animal husbandry, and affluence in the rise of moralizing religions. Using a broad range of nuanced measures of moralizing religion, we find strong support for previous research showing that institutions endorsing beliefs in supernatural enforcement arise after, not before, the sharpest rises in social complexity in world history. In addition, our analyses suggest that intergroup warfare, supported by resource availability, played a significant role in driving the rise of both social complexity and moralizing religions. The data, methods, and results presented in this paper have been made publicly available online for others to inspect and critique, allowing additional analyses to be run and alternative assumptions to be tested, in parallel with peer review and prior to publication.

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Explaining the rise of moralizing religions: a test of competing hypotheses using the Seshat Databank

Turchin

Whitehouse

Larson

et al. 2022

Religion, Brain & Behavior

Self Cite

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The causes, consequences, and timing of the rise of moralizing religions in world history have been the focus of intense debate. Progress has been limited by the availability of quantitative data to test competing theories, by divergent ideas regarding both predictor and outcomes variables, and by differences of opinion over methodology. To address all these problems, we utilize Seshat: Global History Databank, a large storehouse of information designed to test theories concerning the evolutionary drivers of social complexity. In addition to the Big Gods hypothesis, which proposes that moralizing religion contributed to the success of increasingly large-scale complex societies, we consider the role of warfare, animal husbandry, and agricultural productivity in the rise of moralizing religions. Using a broad range of new measures of belief in moralizing supernatural punishment, we find strong support for previous research showing that such beliefs did not drive the rise of social complexity. By contrast, our analyses indicate that intergroup warfare, supported by resource availability, played a major role in the evolution of both social complexity and moralizing religions. Thus, the correlation between social complexity and moralizing religion would seem to result from shared evolutionary drivers, rather than from direct causal relationships between these two variables.

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Mapping the Spread of Mounted Warfare

Cited by 11 publications

References 14 publications

Retrodicting the Rise, Spread, and Fall of Large-scale States in the Old World

Retrodicting the Rise, Spread, and Fall of Large-scale States in the Old World

Explaining the Rise of Moralizing Religions: A test of competing hypotheses using the Seshat Databank

Explaining the rise of moralizing religions: a test of competing hypotheses using the Seshat Databank

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