Mapping the Timing, Pace, and Scale of the Fertility Transition in Brazil

Potter, Joseph E.; Schmertmann, Carl P.; Assunção, Renato M.; Cavenaghi, Suzana

doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00330.x

Cited by 88 publications

(97 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…In both countries this represents a fall of over four births per woman since the onset of the fertility transition in the 1960s. Fertility decline in Brazil has accelerated in the 2000s (Rodriguez Wong 2009, Potter et al 2010, concurrent with rapid economic growth and broadening of the middle class (Souza 2012). Brazilian fertility is clearly heading to levels substantially lower than replacement, especially if Brazil experiences an intensive postponement of childbearing similar to that experienced in European and East Asian countries in recent decades.…”

Section: Latin America and The Caribbeanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries AbstractThis paper discusses results of the global survey of experts on the future of low fertility in low-fertility countries. The survey was coordinated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital as a part of an effort to produce global argumentbased population projections by age, sex and level of education. First we give an overview of fertility changes in major low-fertility regions. Next we outline main theoretical arguments and review a wide range of factors contributing to fertility change and variation in contemporary low-fertility settings. Subsequently, we present survey results based on 184 assessments of over 170 experts analysing 41 countries with currently low or aroundreplacement fertility and Israel. These experts provided forecasts of period total fertility rate (TFR) in 2030 and 2050, estimated 80% confidence interval of their forecast and assessed the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 factors. We also compare expert-derived projections of the TFR trends with the forecasts formulated by the UN World Population Prospects in 2010. The survey results in combination with the feedback provided by the invited experts then serve as a basis for formulating a set of projection scenarios for all low fertility countries up until 2050, which are additionally expanded (in a simpler form) through 2200. We present these scenarios and discuss past changes in fertility differences by level of education and their potential future trends in main regions. Presented analyses and projections indicate that a global convergence of fertility to around replacement level, envisioned in the UN projections, appears unlikely. Continuing differentiation combined with partial convergence in fertility towards lower levels is suggested as a more plausible scenario, with East Asia (including China) as well as Russia expected to have sustained very low fertility below 1.5 through 2050.

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Section: Latin America and The Caribbeanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The second exercise looks on how the concentration of skilled workers correlates with returns to schooling (individual earnings) across regions of Brazil and Mexico. These two countries have very similar features and are passing through a rapid process of demographic and educational changes with large regional and social inequalities (Barro and Lee 2001;Marteleto 2005, 2008;Marcílio 2001Marcílio , 2005Potter et al 2010;Potter et al 2002;Riani 2005;Gong and Van Soest 2002;Lustig et al 2013;Rios-Neto and Guimarães 2010). Our analysis takes into account demographic, educational and economic variations within each country and their regions over time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic changes, educational improvements, and earnings in Brazil and Mexico

Amaral

Queiroz

Calazans

2015

IZA J Labor Develop

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This paper estimates the association of demographic and educational changes with earnings and returns to schooling of male workers in Brazil and Mexico. Our analysis takes into account demographic, educational, and economic variations within each country over time, using Demographic Censuses microdata from Brazil and Mexico. Results suggest that demographic and educational transitions are correlated with earnings and returns to education. Proportions of people in age-education groups tend to have negative associations with aggregated earnings. Workers with secondary education completed experience negative effects on their earnings by having lower education than university graduates (education effect) and by representing a bigger share of the population than males with university education completed (cohort size effect). The negative correlations of cohort size have been decreasing in magnitude over time. We also find that the concentration of skilled labor in specific locations has positive associations with individual earnings and that they are greater than those observed in more developed countries. Moreover, in Brazil and Mexico, these effects are observed throughout the income distribution, contrary to what is observed in studies for the United States.

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“…Apesar de a RM de São Paulo ser umas das aglomerações urbanas mais ricas do país e uma das regiões onde mais cedo se observou o declínio de suas taxas de fecundidade (POTTER et al, 2010), o ritmo de envelhecimento projetado para a RMSP nas próximas duas décadas se assemelha muito à projeção estimada para o total do Brasil. É razoável esperar que a alteração na composição etária da população como um todo deverá ter desdobramentos na composição etária das viagens realizadas dentro do sistema de transporte público.…”

Section: Abordagens Sobre Envelhecimento Populacional Na Literatura Dunclassified

“…A replicação deste estudo para outras aglomerações urbanas no Brasil também parece promissora, uma vez que as tarifas de transporte público deverão ser impactadas com diferentes intensidades, a depender das legislações específicas de cada município e dos seus diferentes ritmos de envelhecimento populacional observados ao longo no território nacional (POTTER et al, 2010). Mas não se pode deixar de levar em conta que o objetivo da gratuidade é o de aumentar a integração social do idoso, evitando, assim, o seu isolamento e os males dele advindo, como a depressão.…”

Section: Considerações Finaisunclassified

Envelhecimento populacional, gratuidades no transporte público e seus efeitos sobre as tarifas na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo

Pereira¹,

Carvalho²,

Souza³

et al. 2015

Rev. bras. estud. popul.

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No Brasil, estudantes, crianças de até quatro anos de idade e idosos com 65 anos ou mais têm direito a descontos parciais ou totais em viagens urbanas nos sistemas de transporte público. Esses descontos não são cobertos por fundos públicos, mas sim por subsídio cruzado cobrado dos demais usuários que pagam a tarifa cheia. Neste estudo, são estimados os efeitos do envelhecimento populacional sobre o preço das passagens do transporte público nas próximas quatro décadas na Região Metropolitana de São de Paulo (RMSP), a maior região metropolitana do país. As análises são baseadas nos dados da Pesquisa Origem-Destino, realizada em 2007 na RMSP, e nas projeções demográficas elaboradas pelo IBGE e pela Fundação Seade para 2020, 2030 e 2050. Considerando os diferentes períodos de projeção populacional, adaptou-se a técnica de padronização direta para simular as mudanças esperadas na composição das viagens do sistema de transporte, em termos de passageiros pagantes e não pagantes. Os resultados indicam que, no curto prazo (2020), o envelhecimento populacional estimado para ocorrer na RMSP teria efeito modesto sobre o número total e a composição etária das viagens realizadas no transporte público da região. No médio e longo prazos, contudo, o crescimento previsto na proporção de passageiros com gratuidades poderia ocasionar aumento no sobrepreço da tarifa, com elevação de seu valor em cerca de 10% e de 20%, caso seja mantido o mecanismo de subsídios cruzados.Palavras-chave: Envelhecimento demográfico. Transporte público. Transporte

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Mapping the Timing, Pace, and Scale of the Fertility Transition in Brazil

Cited by 88 publications

References 37 publications

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Demographic changes, educational improvements, and earnings in Brazil and Mexico

Envelhecimento populacional, gratuidades no transporte público e seus efeitos sobre as tarifas na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo

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