Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa

Abstract

BackgroundMarburg virus disease (MVD) describes a viral haemorrhagic fever responsible for a number of outbreaks across eastern and southern Africa. It is a zoonotic disease, with the Egyptian rousette (Rousettus aegyptiacus) identified as a reservoir host. Infection is suspected to result from contact between this reservoir and human populations, with occasional secondary human-to-human transmission.MethodsIndex cases of previous human outbreaks were identified and reports of infection in animals recorded. These data were modelled within a species distribution modelling framework in order to generate a probabilistic surface of zoonotic transmission potential of MVD across sub-Saharan Africa.ResultsAreas suitable for zoonotic transmission of MVD are predicted in 27 countries inhabited by 105 million people. Regions are suggested for exploratory surveys to better characterise the geographical distribution of the disease, as well as for directing efforts to communicate the risk of practices enhancing zoonotic contact.ConclusionsThese maps can inform future contingency and preparedness strategies for MVD control, especially where secondary transmission is a risk. Coupling this risk map with patient travel histories could be used to guide the differential diagnosis of highly transmissible pathogens, enabling more rapid response to outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever.

Exploratory Analysis of Dengue Fever Niche Variables within the Río Magdalena Watershed

“…Identification of these vector boundaries, and the pathogen it carries, is known as detection of the zoonotic niche [22][23][24][25]. The variables defining this niche can be estimated through RS data to derive the geographic extent of the mosquito's habitat [3], and could become increasingly important to accurately monitor future transmission risk of DF.…”

“…These methods have been shown to reduce the amount of data used and identify trends in the dataset [8,36]. Other studies have used regression techniques, including the geographically weighted regression and auto-regression, methods for virus modeling [8,21,39], and boosted regression trees [22][23][24][25]. These methods can be computationally intense and difficult to implement.…”

Transcriptional Profiling of the Immune Response to Marburg Virus Infection

“…More recent reports of MVD describe outbreaks in 2007, 2012, and 2014 in Uganda (6,7), an imported case in the Netherlands in 2008 (8,9), and a likely imported case in Colorado, USA, also in 2008 (10). Recent modeling data suggest that as many as 27 countries with more than 100 million people are at risk for Marburg virus infection (11).…”

Translating Predictions of Zoonotic Viruses for Policymakers

“…MARV has been isolated from its reservoir host species Rousettus aegyptiacus, the Egyptian fruit bat, which roosts in caves and is found in Cameroon. While most human infections and wildlife detections of MARV have occurred in eastern Africa, seropositive bats have been found in the Republic of Congo and PCR positive bats have been found in Gabon (Maganga et al 2011;Pigott et al 2015).…”

“…We found three predictive maps for MARV from two publications (Peterson et al 2004;Pigott et al 2015). One publication had two predictions, one based on a model using human cases only and the other including bat serology .…”