Mapping threatened Thai bovids provides opportunities for improved conservation outcomes in Asia

Abstract

Wild bovids provide important ecosystem services throughout their native range. In Asia, most are threatened with extinction. Five wild bovids remain in Thailand: gaur (Bos gaurus), banteng (Bos javanicus), wild water buffalo (Bubalus arnee), mainland serow (Capricornis sumatraensis) and Chinese goral (Naemorhedus griseus). However, their populations and habitats have declined substantially and become fragmented. Here, we identified potentially suitable habitat for these five threatened bovids using ecological niche models, first throughout the species entire distribution and second within Thailand, and quantified how much suitable area remains within protected areas. We combined species occurrence data with 28 environmental variables for modelling and used a spatially-restricted Biotic-Abiotic-Mobility framework for two accessible areas: 1) species-specific accessible areas and 2) a single large accessible area. We applied spatially restricted and weighted average ensembles from eight algorithms when generating maps. ForB. gaurusandB. javanicus,the best models predicted suitable habitat was mostly within Southeast Asia, withB. gaurushaving predicted large areas in Thailand and India.B. arneesuitable habitat was mostly in India.C. sumatraensissuitable habitat was mostly in Thailand and Myanmar.N. griseuswas mainly restricted to China. In Thailand, the highest bovid potential richnesses were in the Northern Forest, Western Forest, Eastern Forest and Dong Phayayen-Khao Yai Forest Complexes. We identified unprotected hotspots with >50% of overall suitable habitat located outside protected areas.B. arneehad the smallest proportion of protected habitat (9%). Suitable areas identified in and out protected areas may guide habitat management and conflict mitigation strategies.

Spatial risk of disease transmission between wild bovids and livestock in Thailand

“…We assumed wild bovid distributions correlate with their suitable habitat we previously predicted by ecological niche models (36). Ecological niche models used 28 as predictor environmental variables using 8 algorithms.…”

“…We selected three wild bovid species for further analysis: gaur (B. gaurus), banteng (B. javanicus), and wild water buffalo (B. arnee), and excluded Mainland serow (C. sumatraensis) or Chinese goral (N. griseus) from the analyses because the ecological niche models did not perform well. Full methods and model results can be found in Horpiencharoen et al (2023) (36).…”