Mapping vulnerability and conservation adaptation strategies under climate change

Abstract

Identification of spatial gradients in ecosystem vulnerability to global climate change and local stressors is an important step in the formulation and implementation of appropriate countermeasures 1,2 . Here we build on recent work to map ecoregional exposure to future climate, using an envelopebased gauge of future climate stability-defined as a measure of how similar the future climate of a region will be to the present climate 3,4 . We incorporate an assessment of each ecoregion's adaptive capacity, based on spatial analysis of its natural integrity-the proportion of intact natural vegetationto present a measure of global ecosystem vulnerability. The relationship between intactness (adaptive capacity) and stability (exposure) varies widely across ecoregions, with some of the most vulnerable, according to this measure, located in southern and southeastern Asia, western and central Europe, eastern South America and southern Australia. To ensure the applicability of these findings to conservation, we provide a matrix that highlights the potential implications of this vulnerability assessment for adaptation planning and offers a spatially explicit management guide.Anthropogenic climate change is impacting ecosystems globally, causing changes in phenology, species composition and range shifts 5 , while increasing environmental degradation is leading to habitat fragmentation or loss. These two factors in concert are likely to result in exacerbated biodiversity decline and extinction in the near future 6 . As rates of both biodiversity loss and threats are growing 7 , the identification of spatial gradients of ecosystem vulnerability to both global and regional drivers is required for the development of effective conservation measures.There are three shortcomings in present conservation-oriented climate change assessments, regardless of their spatial scale. The first concerns vulnerability assessments, which until recently have been focused solely on the system's (extrapolated from species') exposure to future climate change, without considering that vulnerability to climate change is influenced by the system's (species') sensitivity and adaptive capacity, as well as exposure 1,2,8,9 . For conservation planning purposes, this sole focus on exposure does not always equate to the identification of areas that have the most pressing needs for adaptation, particularly those that may be relatively stable climatically but are far more vulnerable to climate change owing to other reasons (for example, present levels of vegetation intactness). The second shortcoming is that most climate change assessments have been conducted on species-specific responses, and therefore have been largely unable to inform conservation actions in terms of ecosystem-focused adaptation 10,11 . The third shortcoming

Fuelling in front of the barrier - are there age based behavioral differences in Garden Warblers Sylvia borin?

“…Areas close to ecological barriers are critical for many birds to be able to make a successful crossing and as such those areas must be of high conservation interest in the near future. This is especially evident since the ongoing climate change might affect some of those areas very much (Watson et al, 2013). …”

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“…It has been reported, however, that clarity and rationality of goals during previous ecological restoration and sustainability oriented interventions in the Loess Plateau has been a major area for improvement (Xu 2011). Assessment and mapping of agricultural vulnerability to climate-related stressors is therefore an important process in the formulation and implementation of appropriate adaptation measures and priority setting for agricultural investment (Watson et al 2013).…”

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“…The evidence for climate change and predictions for a continual decline in winter rainfall for southwest Western Australia (Stott et al 2010;Dai 2013;Watson et al 2013) is an additional factor that exacerbates the sensitivity of this vegetation to damage from tourists and other visitors.…”