Maquiladora Employment Dynamics in Nuevo Laredo

Abstract

The Nuevo Laredo maquiladora sector has grown enormously during the last two decades. The short-term time series characteristics of this portion of the regional economy are analyzed in an attempt to quantify the trends underlying this remarkable performance. Parameter estimation is accomplished via linear transfer function (LTF) analysis. Data are drawn from the January 1990-December 2000 sample period. Empirical results indicate that real wage rates, maquiladora plants, U.S. industrial activity, and the real exchange rate of the peso play significant roles in determining month-to-month fluctuations in maquiladora employment. Furthermore, sub-sample forecast simulation exercises are conducted as an additional means for verifying model reliability. Empirical results indicate that the forecasts generated with the LTF model are less accurate than those associated with a simple random walk procedure for twelve separate step-length periods. Copyright 2007 Blackwell Publishing.

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