Presence-absence surveys are frequently used to monitor populations of rare and elusive species. Such data may also be used as a proxy for breeding activity, but links between presence-absence data and higher-order processes must be validated to determine their reliability. The Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) is a threatened seabird that nests in older-aged forests along the Pacific Coast. Its nests are exceptionally difficult to find, so we tested whether presence-absence surveys can help identify nesting sites. Between 2018 and 2022 we located 17 trees containing active murrelet nests in the Oregon Coast Range (USA) and 38 trees that purportedly contained no active nests (26 in occupied murrelet stands and 12 in unoccupied stands). Observers surveyed within 200 m of focal trees using standard presence-absence surveys, and we modeled the effects of site status (active nest or control) and distance from the focal tree on probability of recording murrelets. We never detected murrelets in unoccupied control sites. We found some evidence that the probability of recording presence was higher at active nesting sites (0.81, 95% CI: 0.71, 0.88) than at occupied control sites (0.71, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.78) although a null model had similar support. The probability of recording murrelet breeding behaviors in nesting and occupied control sites was 0.20 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.27) regardless of distance to a known active nest. These results suggest that presence-absence surveys may be useful for identifying plausible murrelet nesting habitat, but they are ineffective for identifying active nesting sites. Moreover, we estimated that 20 repeated surveys at a point in space are required to reasonably conclude there are no active nesting sites within 200 m. These findings serve as an important reminder of the limitations that can come with relying on presence-absence data alone to identify breeding sites.
