Marine heatwaves under global warming

Frölicher, Thomas L.; Fischer, Erich M.; Gruber, Nicolas

doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9

Cited by 1,075 publications

(881 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Throughout the coming century, average sea temperatures are projected to continue to rise (IPCC, 2013), and the frequency of marine heatwaves will also increase (Fr€ olicher et al, 2018), with ecosystem-level consequences . Throughout the coming century, average sea temperatures are projected to continue to rise (IPCC, 2013), and the frequency of marine heatwaves will also increase (Fr€ olicher et al, 2018), with ecosystem-level consequences .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of ocean warming on kelp forest ecosystems

2019

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Summary Kelp forests represent some of the most diverse and productive habitats on Earth, and provide a range of ecosystem goods and services on which human populations depend. As the distribution and ecophysiology of kelp species is strongly influenced by temperature, recent warming trends in many regions have been linked with concurrent changes in kelp populations, communities and ecosystems. Over the past decade, the number of reports of ocean warming impacts on kelp forests has risen sharply. Here, I synthesise recent studies to highlight general patterns and trends. While kelp responses to climate change vary greatly between ocean basins, regions and species, there is compelling evidence to show that ocean warming poses an unequivocal threat to the persistence and integrity of kelp forest ecosystems in coming decades.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of ocean warming on kelp forest ecosystems

2019

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“…The contiguous United States had the warmest May since 1895 (NOAA, 2018c), and the hottest month ever observed was in July in the Death Valley (NOAA, 2018a). The 2018 hot temperatures are in line with an increase in intensity and frequency of extreme heat events over many regions on land and in the ocean in recent years (Coumou & Rahmstorf, 2012;Christidis et al, 2014;Fischer & Knutti, 2015;Frölicher et al, 2018;Rowe & Derry, 2012;Seneviratne et al, 2014). Owing to their devastating impacts, understanding changes in extreme temperature events is highly relevant for society and ecosystems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human‐Induced Climate Change

et al. 2019

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Extremely high temperatures pose an immediate threat to humans and ecosystems. In recent years, many regions on land and in the ocean experienced heat waves with devastating impacts that would have been highly unlikely without human‐induced climate change. Impacts are particularly severe when heat waves occur in regions with high exposure of people or crops. The recent 2018 spring‐to‐summer season was characterized by several major heat and dry extremes. On daily average between May and July 2018 about 22% of the populated and agricultural areas north of 30° latitude experienced concurrent hot temperature extremes. Events of this type were unprecedented prior to 2010, while similar conditions were experienced in the 2010 and 2012 boreal summers. Earth System Model simulations of present‐day climate, that is, at around +1 °C global warming, also display an increase of concurrent heat extremes. Based on Earth System Model simulations, we show that it is virtually certain (using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calibrated uncertainty language) that the 2018 north hemispheric concurrent heat events would not have occurred without human‐induced climate change. Our results further reveal that the average high‐exposure area projected to experience concurrent warm and hot spells in the Northern Hemisphere increases by about 16% per additional +1 °C of global warming. A strong reduction in fossil fuel emissions is paramount to reduce the risks of unprecedented global‐scale heat wave impacts.

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“…MHWs have been observed to cause mass mortality of marine animals and plants and alter the geographic range of a diversity of organisms (Frolicher and Laufkotter ; Harvell et al ). The biological impacts of MHW have perturbed fisheries causing modifications of fishing practices and harvest, led to closures of fisheries, and price collapses (Frolicher et al ). The negative impacts of MHW on embryo abundance (and by inference spawning) have not previously been reported.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Due to climate change, MHWs are becoming more common, larger, and hotter (Frolicher et al ). For example, between 1982 and 2016, the observed number of MHW days worldwide has doubled (Frolicher et al ) and this trend is projected to continue into the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Associated with climate change is an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves on land (Rahmstorf and Coumou ). Climate change is also causing heat waves within the ocean, marine heat waves (MHWs), defined as “discrete prolonged anomalously warm water events” (Frolicher et al ). MHWs have recently occurred in the Mediterranean, off western Australia, in the northwest Atlantic and in the northeast Pacific (Frolicher and Laufkotter ).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Marine heat waves, climate change, and failed spawning by coastal invertebrates

Shanks

Rasmuson

Valley

et al. 2019

Limnology & Oceanography

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To investigate the timing and intensity of winter spawning by coastal invertebrates, we enumerated embryos in plankton samples collected in daily time series from January to March of 2014 (79 d), 2015 (73 d), and 2016 (74 d). Samples were collected near the mouth of the Coos Bay estuary in Oregon. We enumerated several hundred different morphologically distinct types of embryos and larvae representing at least five phyla. Forty‐three embryo types were abundant enough (abundance > 500 over the time series) to enable statistical analysis. Twenty of these types were identified using genetic barcoding of which there were four nemerteans, four gastropods, four chitons, five polychaetes, and two echinoderms. In winter 2014, hydrographic conditions were similar to average historical values. Conditions in 2015 and 2016 were characterized by marine heat waves (MHWs). In 2015, the “warm blob”—anomalously warm water in the Northeastern Pacific—affected conditions and in 2016, there was a strong El Niño. In 2015 and 2016, winter spawning intensity was orders of magnitude lower than in 2014 and many taxa failed to spawn (11 and 24 in 2015 and 2016, respectively); spawning appears to have been adversely impacted by the MHWs. The MHW of 2015 has been attributed to anthropogenic global climate change while the 2016 El Niño may have been strengthened by climate change. The frequency, intensity, and duration of MHW are projected to increase dramatically with global warming, which may adversely affect reproduction and recruitment by numerous marine taxa.

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Marine heatwaves under global warming

Cited by 1,075 publications

References 36 publications

Impacts of ocean warming on kelp forest ecosystems

Impacts of ocean warming on kelp forest ecosystems

Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human‐Induced Climate Change

Marine heat waves, climate change, and failed spawning by coastal invertebrates

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