Marine mammal mitigation through financial risk measures and probabilistic formalism of sonar exposure

Abstract

Many countries use mathematical modelling and decision aids for mitigating the risk of harm to marine mammals due to active sonar tests. A model for the distribution of harm to marine mammals due to sonar exposure is developed and risk measures from financial mathematics are used to quantify worst-case scenarios. The distribution model accounts for the spatial-temporal uncertainty in marine mammal locations and abundance, transmission loss of the sound sources, and species-specific criteria for harm. Under reasonable assumptions, a closed-form solution is found for the distribution of harm for a given marine mammal species and sonar configuration. These risk assessments would be used by planners to choose times, locations, and allowed sonar configurations when conducting sonar activities that would reduce the risk of harm to marine mammals in the area. Two applicable case studies will be presented which include an application of Koch’s spatially normalized risk measures.