Marine species distribution modelling and the effects of genetic isolation under climate change

Cacciapaglia, Chris; Woesik, Robert van

doi:10.1111/jbi.13115

Cited by 32 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…These aspects are rarely considered holistically and for most species, an understanding of their interplay is not available. In distribution modelling of species, however, the importance of factors such as local adaptation and plasticity can be clearly observed as their inclusion results in dramatic shifts in predicted ranges [27][28][29][30][31]. In this theme issue, Donelson et al [32] discuss how, for marine species, ecological and evolutionary processes (migration, plasticity, selection) in response to ocean warming are likely to play out differently depending on the location within a species' range.…”

Section: The Space-time Continuum: Plasticity Across Multiple Dimensionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond buying time: the role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change

Fox

Donelson

Schunter

et al. 2019

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

479

380

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How populations and species respond to modified environmental conditions is critical to their persistence both now and into the future, particularly given the increasing pace of environmental change. The process of adaptation to novel environmental conditions can occur via two mechanisms: (1) the expression of phenotypic plasticity (the ability of one genotype to express varying phenotypes when exposed to different environmental conditions), and (2) evolution via selection for particular phenotypes, resulting in the modification of genetic variation in the population. Plasticity, because it acts at the level of the individual, is often hailed as a rapid-response mechanism that will enable organisms to adapt and survive in our rapidly changing world. But plasticity can also retard adaptation by shifting the distribution of phenotypes in the population, shielding it from natural selection. In addition to which, not all plastic responses are adaptive—now well-documented in cases of ecological traps. In this theme issue, we aim to present a considered view of plasticity and the role it could play in facilitating or hindering adaption to environmental change. This introduction provides a re-examination of our current understanding of the role of phenotypic plasticity in adaptation and sets the theme issue's contributions in their broader context. Four key themes emerge: the need to measure plasticity across both space and time; the importance of the past in predicting the future; the importance of the link between plasticity and sexual selection; and the need to understand more about the nature of selection on plasticity itself. We conclude by advocating the need for cross-disciplinary collaborations to settle the question of whether plasticity will promote or retard species' rates of adaptation to ever-more stressful environmental conditions. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change’.

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Section: The Space-time Continuum: Plasticity Across Multiple Dimensionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond buying time: the role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change

Fox

Donelson

Schunter

et al. 2019

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

479

380

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, most models, especially SDMs, were cross-validated to a portion of the dataset (Figure 2d) Only three studies considered LA to aspects of the local environment other than climate (Hu et al, 2017;Schwalm et al, 2016;Wang et al, 2010), and none considered LA to biotic drivers such as interacting species. Only two studies included empirical estimates of dispersal rates (Cacciapaglia & van Woesik, 2018;Morin et al, 2008) and none considered gene flow among intraspecific lineages or locations. We discuss each of these considerations, and their potential impact on species' forecasts, in greater detail below.…”

Section: Summary Of Past Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although most distribution forecasts that incorporate LA assume either unlimited dispersal or compare unlimited and no dispersal scenarios, potential dispersal rates for intraspecific lineages will likely have fairly narrow bounds. To better characterize dispersal, some studies have used direct estimates of dispersal rates (Cacciapaglia & van Woesik, 2018;Morin et al, 2008), whereas others have assumed dispersal will be constrained by land use boundaries (D'Amen et al, 2013;Hamann & Aitken, 2013;Schwalm et al, 2016). More complex models could incorporate spatially varying dispersal rates due to habitat fragmentation or biotic filters, or even the potential for dispersal traits to evolve at shifting range margins (Phillips, Brown, Webb, & Shine, 2006;Williams, Kendall, & Levine, 2016).…”

Section: Estimation and Use Of Empirical Dispersal And Gene Flow Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species’ distribution and abundance under climate change

Peterson

Doak

Morris

2019

Global Change Biology

202

172

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Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species’ distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographic ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade‐off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to nonclimatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species‐level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA.

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“…[20]). Some previous studies have also attempted to include aspects of local adaptation [21 -24], plasticity [25] and species interactions [26][27][28] into species distribution modelling; however, the majority of these studies are based on terrestrial ecosystems (see for exceptions [24,26,29]). One of the likely reasons for the limited investigation of plasticity, adaptation and range shifts in unison is owing to the disparate timescales over which they each occur.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding interactions between plasticity, adaptation and range shifts in response to marine environmental change

Donelson

Sunday

Figueira

et al. 2019

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

185

140

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Climate change is leading to shifts in species geographical distributions, but populations are also probably adapting to environmental change at different rates across their range. Owing to a lack of natural and empirical data on the influence of phenotypic adaptation on range shifts of marine species, we provide a general conceptual model for understanding population responses to climate change that incorporates plasticity and adaptation to environmental change in marine ecosystems. We use this conceptual model to help inform where within the geographical range each mechanism will probably operate most strongly and explore the supporting evidence in species. We then expand the discussion from a single-species perspective to community-level responses and use the conceptual model to visualize and guide research into the important yet poorly understood processes of plasticity and adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change’.

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Marine species distribution modelling and the effects of genetic isolation under climate change

Cited by 32 publications

References 52 publications

Beyond buying time: the role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change

Beyond buying time: the role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change

Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species’ distribution and abundance under climate change

Understanding interactions between plasticity, adaptation and range shifts in response to marine environmental change

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