Marine species distribution shifts on the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf under continued ocean warming

Trait-based modeling of larval dispersal in the Gulf of Maine

“…We conducted a simple sensitivity analysis that explores the possibility of a northward range contraction in species distribution patterns, and found that it had a fairly minor impact on the dispersal success rates. Although poleward distribution shifts have been observed for many species in multiple geographic regions and it is hypothesized that they will continue into the future (Perry et al, 2005;Nye et al, 2009;Kleisner et al, 2017), simply shrinking the size of the study domain by cutting off the southern end may not be sufficient to adequately capture the full complexity of the issue. For many of the species that have shifted north, it is believed that the underlying cause of species distribution shifts is the interaction between warming global oceans and static themal tolerances (Perry et al, 2005;Nye et al, 2009;Kleisner et al, 2017).…”

Ecological and socioeconomic implications of a northern range expansion of black sea bass, Centropristis striata

“…Identifying nursery habitat in southern New England and the GOM will be critical to managing the northern stock of black sea bass as they continue to expand northward. Furthermore, range expansions are predicted to continue along the US Northeast Continental Shelf as ocean temperatures warm (Kleisner et al 2017). Therefore, incorporating non-traditional survey techniques may be important for accurately assessing populations in their newly expanded ranges, particularly structure oriented, aggregating species.…”

“…However, my results suggest that latitudinal heterogeneity exists in sea bass populations north of the Hudson Canyon divide. Furthermore, the poleward range expansion of black sea bass is predicted to continue as additional warming occurs along the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf (Kleisner 2016(Kleisner , 2017, which could result in further divergence of life-history traits of range expanding sea bass away from more centralized populations. I recommend that future assessments target GOM sea bass to build upon these initial findings and enhance our understanding of the biology and population dynamics of sea bass in their newly expanded range.…”

“…The projected continuation and intensification of current ocean warming trends , IPCC 2014) is expected to result in major changes to the distribution and abundance of marine species in the Northwest Atlantic (Kleisner et al 2017), which may have far reaching socioeconomic consequences for coastal communities. The ability of fishers to adapt to, and the successful management of, changing resources will require collaboration among fishers, managers, scientists and other stakeholders.…”

“…Recently, efforts to project future range shifts and theorize potential outcomes have accelerated (Hare et al 2010, Madin et al 2012, Cheung et al 2010, Pinsky and Fogarty 2012, Kleisner et al 2017), yet the ecological and socioeconomic implications of range shifts are still not well understood. In this study, I surveyed the American lobster fishery to examine the socio-ecological implications of the northern range expansion of black sea bass, Centropristis striata, into the Gulf of Maine (GOM).…”