2013
DOI: 10.1126/science.1239352
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Marine Taxa Track Local Climate Velocities

Abstract: Organisms are expected to adapt or move in response to climate change, but observed distribution shifts span a wide range of directions and rates. Explanations often emphasize biological distinctions among species, but general mechanisms have been elusive. We tested an alternative hypothesis: that differences in climate velocity-the rate and direction that climate shifts across the landscape-can explain observed species shifts. We compiled a database of coastal surveys around North America from 1968 to 2011, s… Show more

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Cited by 1,129 publications
(1,087 citation statements)
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References 23 publications
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“…At the end of the 21 st century, temperatures in the Gulf of Maine could transition to be more like those near the New York Bight today, SSTs along the US west coast near the Canadian border could be more like those near central California, while SSTs in the northern Norwegian Sea could be more like current conditions east of England. The warming could result in poleward migration of some fish species, which has already been documented in North American and European marine ecosystems (Perry et al, 2005;Nye et al, 2009;Pinsky et al, 2013), and lead to profound changes in the structure of marine ecosystems that could necessitate a reevaluation of LME boundaries. The shift in the SST distribution results in exceptionally large warm extremes and the disappearance of cold extremes relative to the end of the 20 th century in the RCP8.5 simulations.…”
Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…At the end of the 21 st century, temperatures in the Gulf of Maine could transition to be more like those near the New York Bight today, SSTs along the US west coast near the Canadian border could be more like those near central California, while SSTs in the northern Norwegian Sea could be more like current conditions east of England. The warming could result in poleward migration of some fish species, which has already been documented in North American and European marine ecosystems (Perry et al, 2005;Nye et al, 2009;Pinsky et al, 2013), and lead to profound changes in the structure of marine ecosystems that could necessitate a reevaluation of LME boundaries. The shift in the SST distribution results in exceptionally large warm extremes and the disappearance of cold extremes relative to the end of the 20 th century in the RCP8.5 simulations.…”
Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…, including fish distributions (e.g., Nye et al, 2009;Block et al, 2011;Pinsky et al, 2013), fish recruitment (e.g., Planque and Fredou, 1999;Hunt et al, 2011;Kristiansen et al, 2011) and biodiversity (Edwards and Richardson, 2004;Tittensor et al, 2010). Even bottom-dwelling marine organisms are greatly influenced by changes in SST as most spend at least part of their life cycle either as pelagic larvae or depend on food sources that are affected by SST.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…However, there is considerable heterogeneity in the direction and magnitude of species' responses, and ranges of many species have not changed at all [12][13][14]. Some of this heterogeneity may be attributable to local variation in climate change, but few studies have accounted for spatial heterogeneity in climate change across the landscape [1,14,15]. Moreover, there is potential for considerable sampling error because local colonization and extinction cannot be demonstrated convincingly unless detectability (i.e.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Ranges of populations contract as habitat is destroyed or developed (Wilcove et al 1986), expand as individuals are introduced into new environments (Johnson et al 2006;Urban et al 2007) or recolonize old ones (Fagan et al 2005;Ortiz-Catedral et al 2009), and change as populations adapt in response to altered climate conditions (Davis and Shaw 2001;Pinsky et al 2013). A key characteristic of these changes is the rate at which a population is able to grow and spread.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%