Maritime Stock Prices and Information Flows: A Cointegration Study

Abstract

In this study, the issue of how global maritime stock prices influence the stock prices of large transportation companies in the U.S. and other large markets is examined. Maritime stocks are chosen because they are central in global trade and thus may be good indicators of future global stock market and economic trends. Maritime companies are often owned by families or governments and are traded in stock markets with lower standards of accountability, hence information flows from maritime stocks may be slower than flows from other stocks. Cointegration and vector error-correction analysis is used to analyze the short-term and long-term relationships between maritime stocks, rail stocks, and trucking stocks. Evidence is found of a gradual diffusion of information from maritime stock prices to large rail or trucking stocks. This suggests that price changes in maritime stocks may help predict changes in prices in non-maritime transportation stocks.