Maritime transport disruption risk for EU islands under a changing climate

Abstract

Maritime Transport is a vital sector for global trade and the world economy. Particularly for islands, there is also an important social dimension introduced since island communities strongly rely on the sector for connection with the mainland and transportation of goods and passengers. Furthermore, islands are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, as sea-level rise and extreme events are expected to induce severe impacts. Such hazards are anticipated to also affect the operations of the Maritime Transport sector, either in port infrastructures or ships en route. The present study is an effort to comprehend better and assess the future risk of Maritime Transport disruption in six European islands and archipelagos and aims at supporting regional to local policy and decision-making. We employ state-of-the-art regional climate datasets and the widely used Impact Chain approach to identify the different components that might drive such risks. Larger islands (e.g., Corsica, Cyprus, and Crete) are found to be more resilient to the impacts of climate change on maritime operations. Our findings also highlight the importance of adopting a low-emission pathway since this will keep the risk of Maritime Transport disruption similar to present levels, with an even slightly decreased risk for some islands because of enhanced adaptation capacity and advantageous demographic changes.